By Bobby Ghosh

Having trained two generations of Iranians to performatively chant “Marg bar Amrika” at every opportunity, the country’s hardline leaders might now wonder about the wisdom of making the call for death to hate figures a national reflex. Cries of “Marg bar Putin” at recent demonstrations in Tehran against the invasion of Ukraine must have been embarrassing for a regime that regards the Russian leader as an ally.   

But that is nothing compared with the discomfort caused by chants of “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to Raisi” now ringing out at protests across the country. As demonstrations against rising prices of food and fuel have turned political, more Iranians are directing their rage at Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi.

Having exhausted their standard excuse that US sanctions are to blame for everything that ails Iran, the clerics have quickly moved on to their usual Plan B: Killing and jailing protesters and imposing internet blackouts on cities where demonstrations have broken out. But as yet, neither the brutality nor the government’s offer of $14 monthly cash handouts for the neediest families has quelled the upheaval.

There is every chance the protests will grow, along with the prices of essentials: A prolonged drought is increasing Iran’s need for grain imports just as two major suppliers, Russia and Ukraine, are locked in a war. The regime will likely ratchet up the repression, just as it did in the fall of 2019, when it stamped out demonstrations against fuel price increases by killing hundreds of protesters.  

In normal circumstances, this would be an opportunity for the US to ramp up pressure on the regime in Tehran by turning the sanctions screw while holding out the lever of food aid. But the Biden administration has been doing the opposite, letting Iran flout sanctions with impunity while the State Department offers lip service to Iranians’ “rights to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression.”  

The war in Ukraine has given Iran a windfall in oil revenues — the very thing sanctions were meant to prevent — almost entirely from exports to China. Raisi has boasted that exports have doubled since last summer, and his budget for the next fiscal year projects export revenues to rise by a third.

Iran’s oil exports are carried through crude subterfuge: Oil tankers turn off their transponders to conceal their routes or transfer their cargo en route to other ships. A US administration paying close attention would easily see through such deception; professional tanker trackers routinely use satellite imagery to spot vessels that have gone dark.

But the Biden administration has chosen to look the other way. In part, this is because the US president had made a priority of reviving a 2015 nuclear deal struck between Iran and the world powers and effectively rescinded by his predecessor. The administration was willing to cut the Iranians some sanctions slack in the hope they would be more amenable to returning to the terms of the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Tehran was happy to take the sweetener, but offered no concessions in return. It has continued to enrich uranium to dangerous levels and build its stockpile. To date, it refuses to even let the Americans back to the JCPOA negotiating table.  

The war in Ukraine has given the Biden administration another excuse to disregard Iran’s sanctions-busting exports: Shutting them down would have a deleterious effect on oil prices. With sanctions now imposed on Russia, a major oil exporter, and the likes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates refusing to raise their own output to fill the gap, prices have soared. Although Biden has dipped into the U.S. strategic reserve, Americans are paying high prices for gas at the pump.

There could be one other consideration for Biden’s reluctance to squeeze Tehran: Cutting off Iranian supplies might antagonize Beijing, and he is hoping China’s President Xi Jinping, who has for the most part backed Russia in the war, will help persuade Putin to end it.

There is little indication that Xi will do anything of the sort. But the Chinese are doing Biden a different kind of favor, albeit unintended. With Russia now needing alternative buyers for the oil it can no longer sell to the West, China is capitalizing on the heavily discounted prices. Russian oil is the more attractive because it doesn’t need to travel halfway around the world to reach China, as Iranian crude must. As a result, Iranian supplies to China have fallen in recent weeks.

This ought to free up Biden to end the long grace period he has allowed Iran and get serious about imposing sanctions on its exports. If Tehran won’t come to terms over the JCPOA, there is no sense in allowing the regime to fill its coffers. 

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Bobby Ghosh is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering foreign affairs. Previously, he was editor in chief at Hindustan Times, managing editor at Quartz and international editor at Time. Energiesnet.com does not necessarily share these views.

Editor’s Note: This article was originally published by Bloomberg, on May 20, 2022.  All comments posted and published on EnergiesNet.com, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of EnergiesNet.com or Petroleumworld.

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EnergiesNet.com 05 20 2022