Colombians opted for change in May’s presidential elections. On Sunday, they will choose between two very different candidates — leftist Gustavo Petro and heterodox outsider Rodolfo Hernández. Both tap into the country’s deep indignation with the status quo, but also raise concerns about governability moving forward. (See yesterday’s post.)

Petro promises deep social reforms, while Hernández has focused his discourse on anti-corruption issues, though he himself is accused in a graft case in his hometown. Polls indicate the two are tied, and analysts have raised concerns that the vote could be challenged, though this did not occur in May’s vote.

Colombian police are on maximum alert for potential political violence, after plans by radical groups to reject the outcome of the June 19 election were uncovered. The plans were detected on social media as well as the deep web and dark web in posts published by fake or anonymous accounts, according to Colombian officials.

Both candidates have faced assassination threats. Petro and his running mate, Francia Márquez, appeared in campaign rallies last month behind bulletproof shields. Hernández extended a trip to Florida last week and called off all public campaign events because of safety concerns.

On Wednesday a Colombian court ordered the two candidates to hold a televised debate by yesterday, at the latest. Hernández refused to advance on the issue, and the two candidates failed to present a joint request to Colombia’s public television, as required. Among other things, Hernández has said debates are a waste of funds, demanded the debate be held in his home-city of Bucaramanga and said Petro should pay for the costs.

(Associated Press, Reuters, Deutsche Welle, La Silla Vacía, La Silla Vacía, Washington Post, El País)

Sergio Guzman, a political analyst and director of Bogota-based Colombia Risk Analysis, said the runoff campaign took a “nasty” turn, as political discourse and public debate crumbled in favour of partisan attacks. “Things just got nasty,” he told Al Jazeera.

More Colombia

• Colombia’s Procuraduría General de la Nación – constitutionally barred from intervening in politics – has taken actions during the campaign to the detriment of Petro, undermining its own image and casting a shadow over the second-round vote on Sunday, argues Charles H. Roberts at the AULA blog.
  
  
• Hernández’s campaign, which eschewed traditional rallies and mass events, benefited significantly from Wappid, a software that resembles a social network, but also uses referral marketing techniques and gamification to encourage registered users to grow their own personal support networks under the umbrella of Rodolfistas.wappid.com, reports Rest of World. (See Silla Vacía and June 7’s briefs.)
  
  
• Petro and Hernández differ significantly, but neither seems prepared to address the challenges of Colombia’s rural war zones, writes Elizabeth Dickinson in a New York Times op-ed. “Neither has articulated a clear plan to contain rising levels of conflict and armed violence in the countryside, like the Gulf Clan actions. As seen in higher levels of displacement, assassinations of social and community leaders, and child recruitment, security is deteriorating rapidly.”
  
  
• For over two decades, no country in Latin America has had as close a partnership with the United States as Colombia. Sunday’s election is raising fears the relationship is set to change in fundamental ways, writes Cynthia Arnson in the Wilson Center Weekly Asado. Both candidates have rallied against drug war policies, and support renegotiating parts of the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement to protect domestic agriculture and manufacturing.

News Briefs

Regional

• Colombia’s second-round vote on Sunday is a decision between two promises of change, and an expression of profound indignation with the country’s status quo. It’s part of a regional dissatisfaction that has ushered in outsider candidates, I write in El Diplo. While the trend offers some hope for democratic renewal, outsider presidents are significantly challenging their country’s institutions, in several cases.
  
  
• Colombians’ polarized choice “has become worryingly familiar in Latin American elections,” according to the Economist. “In a region that was discontented even before the pandemic, there no longer seem to be many takers for the moderation, compromise and gradual reform needed to become prosperous and peaceful.”
  
  
• Indeed, Latin America is is stuck in a development trap, argues Michael Reid in an Economist special report. A long period of relative economic stagnation has brought frustration over lack of opportunities, which has coincided with a marked political deterioration, he writes.
  
  
• Last weekend’s CPAC Brasil—a spinoff of the U.S. Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC)—brought together right-wing personalities and politicians from Brazil and other parts of South America. Brazilian congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro welcomed former Chilean presidential candidate José Antonio Kast and Argentine congressman Javier Milei, evidence that Jair Bolsonaro’s brand of conservatism—inspired in part by that of Trump—has reverberated across the region, writes Catherine Osborn in the Latin America Brief.

Brazil

• Sectors of Brazil’s military have backed Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s unfounded allegations of potential electoral irregularities, heightening concerns about a potential challenge if he loses his reelection bid in October. “A breakdown in Brazil’s constitutional order remains unlikely, but the courts, the military and political leaders will have to act in unison to rebut any baseless fraud claims,” according to a new International Crisis Group report.
  
  
• “A number of signs suggest that Bolsonaro’s anti-democratic vitriol may at some stage congeal into justifications for acts of violence,” warns the report. In this case, the worry is not that security forces will lead a coup, but that they “might not respond if called upon to contain violence or even an attempted uprising by Bolsonaro loyalists.”
  
  
• The disappearance and murder of Dom Phillips and Bruno Pereira ignited a campaign to urge Brazil’s authorities to act and shone a spotlight on the increasingly hostile environment in the world’s largest rainforest, reports the Guardian, in a timeline of the case. (See yesterday’s briefs, and Tuesday’s post.)
  
  
• Their deaths are “the embodiment of a wider assault on environmental defenders and those who work with them, and of the dangers faced by journalists,” according to a Guardian editorial.
  
  
• The security situation in the Amazon area where they disappeared — near the Brazil-Colombia-Peru border region — has progressively deteriorated since 2020 as Latin American drug cartels and factions fought for control of this increasingly lucrative smuggling route, reports the Guardian.

Regional Relations

• The Summit of the Americas was improvised and left Latin America feeling the U.S. doesn’t care. The event’s failures “made clear how much the U.S.’s ability to form coherent policies toward its neighbors is handcuffed by domestic issues,” writes William Neuman in The Atlantic.
  
  
• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s absence from the meeting raised concerns about the bilateral relationship with the U.S., but ultimately demonstrated that the two country’s “are so deeply interconnected that they can disagree and even criticize each other without causing a major, enduring crisis,” argues Genaro Lozano in Americas Quarterly.

Haiti

• A powerful Haitian gang attacked and occupied the country’s Supreme Court nearly a week ago. Reports that police have still not retaken the courthouse, display authorities’ inability to deal with expanding criminal groups, reports InSight Crime.
  
  
• Ten years after international luminaries inaugurated Caracol Industrial Park in Haiti, thousands of people displaced from the project are still waiting for compensation. It’s just part of how many international efforts to rebuild Haiti after the devastating 2010 earthquake have backfired, condemning a generation of children to poverty and causing irreversible damage to their families’ livelihoods, reports Buzzfeed.

Migration

• Charter flights from Haiti to South America, with premium-price tickets, provide an escape route for Haitians seeking to migrate, including many who were deported from the U.S. The flights from Haiti became a lucrative business as restrictions aimed at controlling the spread of the coronavirus decimated tourism, reports the Associated Press.

Ecuador

• Ecuadorean Indigenous leader Leonidas Iza was freed after a 24-hour detention, accused by the government of leading road blockades and other allegedly violent acts that halted public services. Iza’s lawyer called the detention illegal, but the government has said he will be tried. (Reuters)

Bolivia

• Former Bolivian interim president Jeanine Áñez’s sentencing on charges of breaching her duties and enacting resolutions against Bolivia’s Constitution puts a spotlight on long-running concerns about the country’s judicial independence, writes Fernando Molina at Nueva Sociedad. (See Monday’s briefs.)

Chile

• Chileans will likely approve the magna carta proposed by the Constitutional Convention, according to an analysis by Moody’s, which said that a rejection would create more investor uncertainty and would leave widespread social desire for change unsatisfied. (EFE)
  
  
• Convention delegates will present a final draft on July 4. This week delegates finished approving rules for the transition period governing the implementation of the new constitution, if it is approved in September’s referendum, reports La Bot Constituyente.

Barbuda

• The London-based Privy Council ruled against communal land rights in Barbuda this week, part of a long battle between the island’s residents and the Antigua and Barbuda government. (Just Caribbean Updates)
  
  Jordana Timerman/Latin America Daily Briefing
  http://latinamericadailybriefing.blogspot.com