Update of material financial information
October 15, 2023
1 Macroeconomic Environment:
These indicators were shown:
CPI and PPI showed greater strength which alerted the markets. Fed heads divided on trends to hold interest rates, others to raise them to force down inflation.
The big news is the tension in the Middle East, today Gaza continues to be evacuated and hostilities broke out on the border with Lebanon.
The 10-year Treasury bond closed at 4.62%, with less upward pressure, The VIX which measures volatility moves with up to 16% spreads, no definition.
The WTI crude oil benchmark rose +5.8% on the week, recovering the previous week’s loss. It is in a resistance zone, it will depend on whether there will be supply cuts.
The EIA reported an increase in US crude inventories, which is common in times of tension abroad.
The most relevant news continues to be the development of the conflict in the Middle East.
Stay tuned to the news.
In the U.S., it will be a week of volatility due to the conflict in Israel and the performance of oil prices. In addition, data such as retail sales, industrial production and home sales will be released. It should be added that every business day next week will have speeches and interviews with at least 5 Fed Board Directors.
The stock market, SP500 rose +0.65% in weekly total, with price variation between peaks and valleys of more than 2%. Consolidation of the 4,300 support.
3 Building a long-term portfolio
The two energy-focused funds continue to be affected by the news:
The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Bloomberg Crude Oil, SCO, which works with short crude oil futures contracts, has lost -7.30% in one week.
Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund USO, which contains not only crude oil futures, but also natural gas, diesel and gasoline futures, also showed volatility and rose +2.7%.
More than 4% difference in arbitrage in the two funds during the week.
4 Execution of an algorithm or method to generate cash flow on a long-term portfolio or with money in the account.
Our favorite strategy.
The Magnificent 7, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMZN and META, more positive than negative within the week’s enormous volatility. CME’s FedWatch tool shows that the market is pricing in this week with a 93% chance that rates will not change at the November meeting and only 7% that they will. Conflict with energy price implications dominate the scenario. Amazon is the winner of the week.
5 Analysis of results from the previous week’s forecast.
From our analysis , we suggested looking at Gold , through the bottom the GLD and Bitcoin which had had lows to support points.
The results for this week were :
Result of the observation of results between the GLD and the Bitcoin : +5.33% for the week.
6 Forecast for the week ahead:
We will compare the performances of oil , Gold and the SPY , the 500 most traded stocks.
Difficult to make forecasts in the face of Geopolitical events like the current ones, however they should gain Gold and oil over SPY.
Third week of October, active investment algorithms taking into account quarterly earnings considering historical DATA (Back Testing) which should favor high tech companies , less energy and services. Conflict, energy prices and interest rates, weigh on analysis.
Weekly performance of the US $ 1,000 challenge, 5 weeks:
BAC Bank of America Corporation
GLDS PDR Gold Shares
GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
TSLA Tesla, Inc.
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
META Meta Platforms, Inc.
Chart of our portfolio since its inception 5 weeks ago.
Price of the dollar vs Bs
BCV : Bs 34.74
Unofficial : Bs 37.31
Caracas Stock Exchange Fixed Income:
OPERATIONS NOMINAL AMOUNT (BS.S) CASH AMOUNT (BS.)
0 0 0
OPERATIONS TRADED SECURITIES CASH AMOUNT (BS.)
130 2,859,504 664,484
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Raul Torrealba Ramos, B.A. in Administration and Accounting, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Caracas; Lawyer, Universidad Metropolitana, Caracas, is an experienced financial analyst since 1990. The views expressed are not necessarily those of EnergiesNet.
Editor’s note: This article is published as an opinion and is not recommended for investment. All comments submitted and published on EnergiesNet do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed and is not an endorsement by EnergiesNet or Petroleumworld.
EnergiesNet.com 15 10 2023