Update of material financial information
October 29, 2023
1 Macroeconomic Environment:
These indicators were shown:
The Bear continues to dominate the Wall Street Bull.
Fear continues to take center stage.
Although U.S. economic growth is solid, as this week’s Bureau of economics data showed, markets remain sluggish and fearful ahead of news from the Middle East, Ukraine and China.
Stocks gave good gains but projections for the next quarter were not as good.
Today, Sunday, Israel entered Gaza with ground troops. We will continue to watch.
Employment statistics, manufacturing and the expected early November Fed meeting are on the horizon.
Given the economic and market conditions, as well as the geopolitical climate, interest rate hike projections are minimal.
CME FedWatch Tool
The stock market, SP500 falling – 1.7%.
It broke the 4200 support and is at 4117. Next support at 4000.
3 Building a long-term portfolio
The two Funds concentrated in energy with less volatility, this week the energy markets saw no major threats to previous weeks and moved like this:
The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Bloomberg Crude Oil, SCO, which works with short crude oil futures contracts, lost -0.37% in a week.
Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund USO, which contains not only crude oil futures, but also futures in natural gas, diesel and gasoline, also showed volatility and rose +1.79%.
There was no difference in arbitrage in the two funds during the week. Both in negative figures.
4 Execution of an algorithm or method to generate cash flow on a long-term portfolio or with money in the account.
Our favorite strategy.
The Magnificent 7, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMZN and META, in negative territory or with little price variation. GOOGL stands out with a more modest projection in its future revenues, due to the drop in advertising on its platforms.
5 Analysis of last week’s forecast results.
We compared Gold, Oil, the 10 year bond and the SPY of the 500 stocks in the USA.
This week’s results were :
Gold : +1.49%.
10 Year Bond: Unchanged
We missed the Gold price prediction, however we were right on the price of oil and bonds as they were unchanged. As for the SPY, the influence of the Middle East conflict and the earnings projection affected our weekly forecast.
Weekly performance of our portfolio: -0.91%.
6 Forecast for next week:
We will again compare the yields of oil, Gold and the SPY, and the 10-year Bond.
Geopolitics will continue to set the tone this week, plus the FED meeting.
We emphasize that it is a very complicated time to project because of all the information that is coming in.
In our portfolio, we believe that bond yields will fall or remain slightly unchanged, as will gold and oil. Stocks will be especially affected by the Fed meeting next Wednesday and the earnings and guidance from AAPL, the largest market cap stock next Thursday 2.
Weekly performance of the US $ 1,000 challenge , 6 weeks:
Chart of our portfolio since inception 6 weeks ago.
Initial Value $1000
Price of the dollar vs Bs
BCV : Bs 35.09 +0.68%.
Unofficial : Bs 36.96 +0.43%.
Caracas Stock Exchange
OPERATIONS NOMINAL AMOUNT (BS.S) CASH AMOUNT (BS.)
7 9,445,332 9.443.321,1516
OPERATIONS TRADED SECURITIES CASH AMOUNT (BS.)
150 10,200,093 3, 292,982,92
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Raul Torrealba Ramos, B.A. in Administration and Accounting, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Caracas; Lawyer, Universidad Metropolitana, Caracas, is an experienced financial analyst since 1990. The views expressed are not necessarily those of EnergiesNet.
Editor’s note: This article is published as an opinion and is not recommended for investment. All comments submitted and posted on EnergiesNet do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed and is not an endorsement by EnergiesNet or Petroleumworld.
EnergiesNet.com 29 10 2023