02/ 28 Closing Prices / revised 02/29/2024 10:01 GMT 02/28   OPEC Basket  82.02    – 0.20 | 02/28   Mexico Basket (MME)   $73. 60    -0.15 | 01/13    Venezuela Basket (Merey)  $66.50  +1.30   | 02/28    NYMEX WTI Texas Intermediate April  CLJ24   $78.54 -0.33 | 02/28    ICE Brent April BRNJ24     $83.68    +0.3 | 02/28     NYMEX Gasoline March  RBH24   $2.27   -3.1% |  02/28    NYMEX  Heating Oil March  HOH24   $2.66   -3.2%   | 02/28     Natural Gas March NGH24    $1.89  +4.3% | 02/23    Active U.S. Rig Count (Oil & Gas)    626   +5  | 02/29     USD/MXN Mexican Peso  17.0771  (data live) | 02/29     EUR/USD    1.0850   (data live)  | 02/29    US/Bs. (Bolivar)   $36.13040000  ( data BCV)  

Report: +Cash Flow (December 03, 2023) – Raul Torrealba Ramos

Week 49 of 2023, Report on ideas for positive cash flow.
Week 49 of 2023, Report on ideas for positive cash flow.

MARKET REPORT

Update of material financial information.
December 3, 2023

1 Macroeconomic Environment:

Last Week:

These indicators showed:

Investors are generally in high spirits.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product expanded 5.2% in the third quarter, up from an estimated 4.9%. This fact supported bullish expectations.
However, in the global map of the world we can see how the realities and projections are going this year, which is almost over, and the next 2024:

https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/global-economic-outlook-improving-albeit-to-a-low-growth-recovery.htm
https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/global-economic-outlook-improving-albeit-to-a-low-growth-recovery.htm

On the other hand it seems that the events at Binance and future expectations support the Bitcoin which this week rose 4.23%:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD&.tsrc=fin-srch

Stocks look strong at the close of the week with the SP500 up 0.94%:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC

Conclusion: According to the words of the Fed directors last Friday, there should be no rate hikes in December and they evaluate the performance for 2024 to decide the beginning of the cuts, which the markets seem to be trying to anticipate from now on.

Próxima Semana

This week the hard numbers on US employment are coming.
Unemployment rate, cost of payrolls and also productivity indexes will be released.

For the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting, expectations remain high that interest rates will remain unchanged in 10 days.

CME FedWatch Tool

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.htm
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.htm

2 Micro

Market with good liquidity and low volatility.
Touching the supports of recent years.

S&P 500 Fut (Dec′23)
@SP.1:CME:Index and Options Market

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.VIX?qsearchterm=
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.VIX?qsearchterm=

The current market, or cash, maintains resistance at 4,600 and support at 4,540.

3 Building a long-term portfolio

The two energy-focused Funds that we follow every week were paired together, as befits crude oil prices that moved sideways.
This week the energy markets moved like this:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch

The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Bloomberg Crude Oil, SCO, which works with short crude oil futures contracts, is up +1.64% in a week, with little volatility.

Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund USO, which contains not only crude oil futures, but also natural gas, diesel and gasoline futures, with less volatility, loses -1.78%.

United States Oil Fund
LP USO:NYSE Arca

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/USO?qsearchterm=oil
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/USO?qsearchterm=oil

As volatility in energy prices fell, there was no significant arbitrage in the prices of both funds. Only -0.14% negative difference.

4 Running an algorithm or method to generate cash flow on a long-term portfolio or with money in the account.

We look at volumes, volatility, technical analysis on short and long term support and resistance charts.

Our favorite strategy.

The Magnificent 7, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN and META, had mixed performances, averaging -1.42% . The most punished was META, which fell -3.96%, attributed to profit-taking from previous weeks’ growth.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META?p=ME
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META?p=ME

5 Analysis of results of the previous week’s forecast

Markets in sideways mode, with low volatility.
The fall in the 10-year bond yields stood out, i.e. its price appreciated to the same extent:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=%5ETNX

The hypotheses we left here last week are valid.

The market rises slightly.

Gold + 3.77%.
OIL
– 0.5%.
10 Year Bond -3.92% SPY
SPY +1.00% SPY +1.00%

6 Forecast for the week ahead:

We will again compare the yields of oil , Gold, the SPY, crude oil and the 10 Year Bond.

The SP500 should remain sideways. If it breaks above 4,600, it breaks the resistance marked on open futures and options trades and will look for the next resistance seen in 2021 of 4,700.

Otherwise it may pull back to 4,500.

Using our method in those ranges we will make entries in those ranges. Watch for employment data. We see sideways performance until December 10, when the Fed meets.

Weekly performance of the US $1,000 challenge, 11 weeks:

In ten weeks the portfolio is yielding 12.38%, helped by the rally that continues, that will not be continuous , but we celebrate it. It is equivalent to 58.52% annualized. We continue to do well, without being dazzled. Volatility is a fundamental component of the markets.

Our portfolio since its inception 10 weeks ago.

Venezuelan market

Price of the dollar vs Bs
BCV : Bs 35.51 +0.03
Unofficial : Bs 37 +0.28

Slight slippage of the two exchange rates.
The news of the decrease in the costs and quantities with which the Venezuelan Central Bank intervenes in the banking sector in order to keep the exchange rates stable is noteworthy.
https://www.bancaynegocios.com/bcv-vendio-us100-millones-este-27nov-costo-de-intervencion-cambiaria-ha-bajado-21-en-noviembre/

This week we highlight the launching of the first mobility fund in which 2,000,000 shares have already started to be sold at one dollar each, destined to finance passenger and cargo transportation projects throughout the country. Participants: Ridery, Sunaval, Fondo de emprendedores de Venezuela, Banco de Venezuela, BNC and several brokerage firms. They are listed on the Caracas Stock Exchange.

Caracas Stock Exchange

Fixed Income:

OPERATIONS NOMINAL AMOUNT (BS.S) CASH AMOUNT (BS.).
4 212,230, 2 135,855,72

Variable Income:

TRANSACTIONS TRADED SECURITIES AMOUNT IN CASH (BS.)
1203 1,952,971 647,581,75

Up: 11
Down: 7
Equals: 6

_____________________________________________________

For inquiries about our Algo daily entries, please write to : editor@petroleumworld.com

NOTE: We do not recommend investments, we only give our opinions.

For special courses or investment management contact : editor@petroleumworld.com

______________________________________________________

Raul Torrealba Ramos, B.A. in Administration and Accounting, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Caracas; Lawyer, Universidad Metropolitana, Caracas, is an experienced financial analyst since 1990. The views expressed are not necessarily those of EnergiesNet.

Editor’s note: This article is published as an opinion and is not recommended for investment. All comments submitted and posted on EnergiesNet do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed and is not an endorsement by EnergiesNet or Petroleumworld.

EnergiesNet.com 12 03 2023

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