06/21 Closing Prices / revised 06/21/2024 21:59 GMT |    06/20 OPEC Basket   $85.68  +$0.14 cents 06/21 Mexico Basket (MME)  $76.19  -$0.28  cents | 05/31 Venezuela Basket (Merey)  $70 45   -$4.36 cents | 06/21 NYMEX WTI Texas Intermediate July CLN24 $80.73  -$0.56 cents  | 06/21 ICE Brent August  BRNQ24 $85.24  -$0.47 cents  | 06/21 NYMEX Gasoline July RBN24 $2.51  +0.5%  |  06/21 NYMEX  Heating Oil July  RBN 24   $2.49  -1.3% | 06/21 Natural Gas July NGN24  $2.71   -1.3%  | 06/21 Active U.S. Rig Count (Oil & Gas)   588  -2  | 06/21 USD/MXN Mexican Peso   18.1130 (data live)  | 06/21 EUR/USD   1.0693  (data live)  | 06/25 US/Bs. (Bolivar)   $36.37250000 (data BCV)

Report: +Cash Flow (November 26, 2023) – Raul Torrealba Ramos

Week 48 of 2023, Report on ideas for positive cash flow.

MARKET REPORT

Update of material financial information.
November 26, 2023

1 Macroeconomic Environment:

Last Week:

These indicators showed:

Markets with sideways movements with slight rise in prices. Short week.
Modest volumes.

OPEC meeting postponed for a week due to Saudi Arabia’s influence. There seems to be no consensus to lower crude oil production to prop up prices.

In the meantime :

The EIA in the US reported crude inventories up by 8.7 MM barrels, gasoline inventories up by 0.7 MM and distillate stocks up by 1 MM barrels.

The founder of the most important cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, was removed from his position after pleading guilty to money laundering offenses in Seattle, USA.

Coinbase, another platform is capitalizing on that situation to its advantage.

However, Bitcoin, the most influential, liquid and most valued cryptocurrency, is up 3.72% during the week.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD

Another relevant information is that the number of US citizens owning stock market shares rose to 158 MM people, 62% of adults. This figure had fallen since the crisis of 2000 to 2008, had a floor of 52% in 2015 and has already returned to the levels of before that date.

https://www.fool.com/research/how-many-americans-own-stock/
https://www.fool.com/research/how-many-americans-own-stock/

It is also interesting to note that according to World Bank figures the world population that owns bank and online brokerage accounts has risen substantially worldwide.
The leading market is the USA by far, and these are the firms that lead in the number of brokerage accounts:

Leading discount online stock brokers in the United States as of 2021, by number of customers (in million accounts)

https://thesmartinvestor.com/banking/investing/full-service-vs-online-brokers/
https://thesmartinvestor.com/banking/investing/full-service-vs-online-brokers/

Next Week

Gross Domestic Product data will be released.
Also consumer confidence, manufacturing indices and the personal income index.
On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book, which shows notes on last week’s meeting of its governors.

Expectations remain high that interest rates will remain unchanged 15 days from now at the next Fed meeting.

CME FedWatch Tool

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

2 Micro

Liquidity will return to the markets in the last week of November.
It shows resistance at 4,570 on the upside. Below it shows support at 4,490.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC

3 Building a long-term portfolio

The two energy focused Funds that we follow every week, showed the small decline in the prices of crude oil and its derivative products, this week the energy markets moved like this:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch

The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Bloomberg Crude Oil, SCO, which works with short crude oil futures contracts, loses -4.15% in a week, with a lot of volatility.

Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund USO, which contains not only crude oil futures, but also natural gas, diesel and gasoline futures, with less volatility, gained +1.82%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch

Positive arbitrage in the week for both Funds with a -2.33% positive difference.

4 Execution of an algorithm or method to generate cash flow on a long-term portfolio or with money in the account.

It is important to note that the VIX volatility index which measures investor fear , has come down 41% , from the price of 21.27 to 12.46 , indicating the bull market so far.

However , it is touching pre-2020 support points before the Covit pandemic . This data is very useful because at any time it bounces upwards, with a consequent drop in stock and bond prices.

Our favorite strategy.

The Magnificent 7, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN and META, had positive performances, with MSFT standing out with a rise of 8%. The exception was NVDA which sent out a modest forecast for the coming months on its earnings. NVDA -3%.

5 Analysis of the results of the previous week’s forecast

Positive the assumptions we left here last week.

The market rises.

Breaks resistance at 4515 and passes 4550, +1.24%.

Gold + 1%.
OIL – 1.03%.
10 Year Bond Unchanged
SPY +1.33% SPY +1.33

6 Forecast for next week:

We will again compare the yields of oil, Gold, the SPY, crude oil and the 10-year bond.
Volumes and volatility will return.

The SP500 should remain somewhat sideways. If it breaks above 4,550, it will break the resistance marked on open futures and options trades and move up towards 4,590.

Otherwise it may pull back to 4,490.

Using our method in those ranges we will make entries in those ranges. After the data in the first week of December before the Fed meeting there will be opportunities to the downside and to the upside. Then the Santa Claus Rally should follow.

Weekly performance of the US $1,000 challenge, 10 weeks:
In nine weeks the portfolio is returning 9.16%, equals 47.62% annualized. We are doing well.

Graph of our portfolio since its inception 10 weeks ago.

Raul Torrealba Ramos

Venezuelan market

Dollar price vs Bs
BCV : Bs 35.48 +0.15
Unofficial : Bs 36,72 +0,27

Slight slippage of the two exchange rates.

There is consensus that the BCV’s policies intervening in the banking and exchange houses are working, but inflation is still expected to calm down.
Ecuadorian advisors continue to recommend monetary policies.

Caracas Stock Exchange

Fixed Income:

OPERATIONS NOMINAL AMOUNT (BS.S) CASH AMOUNT (BS.)
23 26.160.854 26.146.349,4179

Variable Income:

TRANSACTIONS TRADED SECURITIES CASH AMOUNT (BS.)
145 17.657.346 1.194.426,57

Up: 6
Down: 6
Equals: 8

_____________________________________________________

For inquiries about our Algo daily entries, please write to : editor@petroleumworld.com

NOTE: We do not recommend investments, we only give our opinions.

For special courses or investment management contact : editor@petroleumworld.com

______________________________________________________

Raul Torrealba Ramos, B.A. in Administration and Accounting, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Caracas; Lawyer, Universidad Metropolitana, Caracas, is an experienced financial analyst since 1990. The views expressed are not necessarily those of EnergiesNet.

Editor’s note: This article is published as an opinion and is not recommended for investment. All comments submitted and posted on EnergiesNet do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed and is not an endorsement by EnergiesNet or Petroleumworld.

EnergiesNet.com 26 11 2023

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