06/21 Closing Prices / revised 06/21/2024 21:59 GMT |    06/20 OPEC Basket   $85.68  +$0.14 cents 06/21 Mexico Basket (MME)  $76.19  -$0.28  cents | 05/31 Venezuela Basket (Merey)  $70 45   -$4.36 cents | 06/21 NYMEX WTI Texas Intermediate July CLN24 $80.73  -$0.56 cents  | 06/21 ICE Brent August  BRNQ24 $85.24  -$0.47 cents  | 06/21 NYMEX Gasoline July RBN24 $2.51  +0.5%  |  06/21 NYMEX  Heating Oil July  RBN 24   $2.49  -1.3% | 06/21 Natural Gas July NGN24  $2.71   -1.3%  | 06/21 Active U.S. Rig Count (Oil & Gas)   588  -2  | 06/21 USD/MXN Mexican Peso   18.1130 (data live)  | 06/21 EUR/USD   1.0693  (data live)  | 06/25 US/Bs. (Bolivar)   $36.37250000 (data BCV)

Report: Positive Cash Flow + (February 2, 2024) – Raúl Torrealba (video)

Watch video: Building Income - Market Report for Week 5 of the Year
Watch video: Building Income – Market Report for Week 5 of the Year

Market Report

Week #5 of 2024, Report on ideas for positive cash flow.

Update on relevant financial information.
January 22 to February 2, 2024.

1 Macroeconomic Environment:

Week ending:
Loaded with news.
The Fed left rates unchanged.
Tech earnings flew , especially Meta and Amazon. It has been a while since a stock in Meta’s category has seen a 20% gain in one day, driven by earnings and forecasts in 2024,

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META?p=META
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META?p=META

The owners of Tick tock and Meta were questioned in the US congress and had to apologize for the collateral damage of social networks. A very complicated issue.
The unemployment rate reached 24 months below 4%, the third longest streak since 1948, post-war.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1753420709475369250/photo/1
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1753420709475369250/photo/1

Reverse Repos continue to rise as shown in the chart, liquidity continues to flow into the system and the Fed drains what appears to be excess.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

The 10-year bond rises in price

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=%5ETNX
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=%5ETNX

Corporate bonds, on the other hand, fell in price, a sign of stabilization for the time being.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYG?p=HYG&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYG?p=HYG&.tsrc=fin-srch

Próxima Semana

Se observa en el gráfico que entre los analistas económicos 62% opinan qué no subirán y 38% que sí, se sabrá el 20 de marzo próximo.

CME FedWatch Tool

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

2 Micro

The S&P 500 fell 1.6% on Wednesday, the first daily drop of 1% or more this year. Since 1928, the average year has 29 such declines. It was a very soft January so far today; more volatility is expected.” Knowing that the data favors more volatility going forward, now is the time for investors to understand how to manage that volatility. It is between 13 and 14.5

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-VIX/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-VIX/

Oil prices had a -6.7% drop for the week. Oil spills in Yemen and elsewhere have not calmed prices.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF?p=CL%3DF
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF?p=CL%3DF

Oil posts its biggest weekly loss since October

Oil futures hit a three-week low on Friday, contributing to their biggest weekly decline since October.

News reports citing Qatari officials and indicating that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and a hostage deal was imminent had triggered a massive sell-off in oil on Thursday, but Qatar later clarified that an agreement had not yet been reached, Reuters reported.

U.S. WTI oil futures lose over 7% for the week.

Closing Prices : Friday, February 2. 2024

Closing Prices :  Friday,  February 2. 2024
Source: MarketWatch

Bitcoin volatile with no direction on the week.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD

3 Building a long-term portfolio

This week the energy ETF markets moved like this:

The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Bloomberg Crude Oil, SCO which works with short crude oil futures contracts, gained +11% in one week.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch

Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund USO, which contains not only crude oil futures but also natural gas, diesel and gasoline futures, with less volatility, is down +5.9%.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-USO/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-USO/

The arbitrage between the prices of both funds was a +5% weekly difference.

4 Execution of an algorithm or method to generate cash flow on a long term portfolio or with money in the account.

Our procedure involves reviewing volumes, volatility, technical analysis on short and long term support and resistance charts.

This is our favorite strategy.

The Magnificent 7, which drive the price indexes due to their traded volumes, were flying in the face of Amzn’s gains, Meta , here the chart of the fund that groups them together. MAGS

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAGS?p=MAGS&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAGS?p=MAGS&.tsrc=fin-srch

5 Analysis of last week’s forecast results

Contained volatility, movements are coming, the protagonists are the magnificent ones.

Watch video

6 Forecast for next week:

We will compare and hypothesize with oil , Gold, SPY, crude and 10-year Bond yields.

Incoming liquidity rises. Again sign of appetite for equities.

We will use our method for stocks in ranges of 4,900 support and 4975 resistance in the SP500 for entries and exits.

Weekly performance of the US $1,000 investment challenge, over 18 weeks:

BAC Bank of America Corporation
100,188}

GLDS PDR Gold Shares
198,55

GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
104,96

TSLA Tesla, Inc.
100,8

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
269,4

QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
108,46

META Meta Platforms, Inc.
117,6

Amount $ 999,958
Yield 100.00%.

The portfolio is yielding 19.67%, due to the rises in Meta

Venezuelan market

Price of the dollar vs Bs
BCV : Bs 36.23
Unofficial : Bs 38.09

The price of the parallel dollar goes down.

NOTE: We do not recommend investments, we only give our opinions.

______________________________________________________

Raúl Torrealba Ramos, B.A. in Administration and Accounting, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Caracas; Lawyer, Universidad Metropolitana, Caracas, is an experienced financial analyst since 1990. The views expressed are not necessarily those of EnergiesNet.

Editor’s note: This article is published as an opinion and is not recommended for investment. All comments submitted and posted on EnergiesNet do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed and is not an endorsement by EnergiesNet or Petroleumworld.

EnergiesNet.com 06 02 2024

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