02/ 23 Closing Prices / revised 02/23/2024 21:59  GMT 02/22   OPEC Basket  82.90 + 0.91  | 02/23    Mexico Basket (MME)   $72. 22 -2.05 | 01/13    Venezuela Basket (Merey)  $66.50  +1.30   | 02/23     NYMEX WTI Texas Intermediate April  CLJ24   $76.49 -2.12 | 02/23    ICE Brent April BRNJ24     $81.62 -2.05 | 02/23     NYMEX Gasoline March  RBH24   $2.28  -2.5% |  02/23    NYMEX  Heating Oil March  HOH24   $2.69   -2.3%   | 02/23    Natural Gas March NGH24    $1.60  -7.5% | 02/23    Active U.S. Rig Count (Oil & Gas)    626   +5  | 02/23    USD/MXN Mexican Peso  17.1166  (data live  | 02/23     EUR/USD    1.0821  (data live)  | 02/23    US/Bs. (Bolivar)   $36.06980000  ( data BCV)  

Report: Positive Cash Flow + (February 9, 2024) – Raúl Torrealba (video)

Watch video: Building Income – Market Report for Week 6 of the Year

Market Report

Week #6 of 2024, Report on ideas for positive cash flow.

Update on relevant financial information.
February 5 – 9, 2024.

1 Macroeconomic Environment:

Week ending:

Federal Reserve officials made statements throughout this week printing volatility .
Prices paid by service organizations rose to the highest level in a year causing some alarm.
Markets broke records on Friday and remained up.
Disney’s stock stood out, rising a total of 10%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS&.tsrc=fin-srch

Reverse Repos continue to rise as shown in the chart, liquidity continues to flow into the system and the Fed drains what appears to be excess.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

The 10 Year Bond is down and yields are up, nothing is certain from here on out.

Corporate bonds also went down in price , raising their yields , with the All Time Highs there are portfolio rotations from stocks to fixed income or bonds.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=%5ETNX
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=%5ETNX

Corporate bonds also fell in price, raising their yields, with the All Time Highs there are portfolio rotations from stocks to fixed income or bonds.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYG?p=HYG&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYG?p=HYG&.tsrc=fin-srch

Next Week

The graph shows that 84% of economic analysts believe that interest rates will not be raised and 16% that they will, which will be known on March 20.

CME FedWatch Tool

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Inflation data is coming this week from the CPI, there will be Volatility as usual.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/11/inside-the-consumer-price-index-december-2023 ( Jennifer Nash/VettaFi, 1/11/24)
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/11/inside-the-consumer-price-index-december-2023 ( Jennifer Nash/VettaFi, 1/11/24)

2 Micro

For the first time in history the SP500 is above 5,000 points.
Now to write the story on the technical analysis charts.

Oil prices had a rise for the week, tensions in the middle east continue.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF?p=CL%3DF
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF?p=CL%3DF

Market drivers

Oil prices post weekly gains amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Oil futures rose for a fifth consecutive session on Friday, with Brent and WTI prices posting strong weekly gains after escalating tensions in the Middle East contributed to a significant rise in benchmark crude prices over the past week.

Brent crude oil prices continued to rise on Friday and moved above the $82 per barrel threshold, after advancing more than 6% in the past five sessions, as Israel launched new airstrikes in Gaza and rejected Hamas’ offer of a ceasefire.

Oil prices rose temporarily on tensions in the Middle East following the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in early October, but prices have failed to break out of a range as the conflict has yet to cause a major disruption to crude supplies. Both Brent and WTI are trading well below the 2023 highs set in late September, according to FactSet data.

However, Brent back above the $80 a barrel level could trigger “a bit of nervousness about inflationary pressures,” a team of strategists at Deutsche Bank led by Jim Reid said in a note to clients on Friday.

https://energiesnet.com/oil-prices-post-weekly-gains-friday-amid-rising-middle-east-tensions-marketwatch/
Source: Marketwatch

Market drivers

Oil prices post weekly gains amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Oil futures rose for a fifth consecutive session on Friday, with Brent and WTI prices posting strong weekly gains after escalating tensions in the Middle East contributed to a significant rise in benchmark crude prices over the past week.

Brent crude oil prices continued to rise on Friday and moved above the $82 per barrel threshold, after advancing more than 6% in the past five sessions, as Israel launched new airstrikes in Gaza and rejected Hamas’ offer of a ceasefire.

Oil prices rose temporarily on tensions in the Middle East following the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in early October, but prices have failed to break out of a range as the conflict has yet to cause a major disruption to crude supplies. Both Brent and WTI are trading well below the 2023 highs set in late September, according to FactSet data.

However, Brent back above the $80 a barrel level could trigger “a bit of nervousness about inflationary pressures,” a team of strategists at Deutsche Bank led by Jim Reid said in a note to clients on Friday.

Source: EnergiesNet.com

Bitcoin touched 48,000 and then eased, it is strengthening in price with ETFs approved in January that are attracting more investors.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD

3 Building a long-term portfolio

This week the energy ETF markets moved like this:

The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Bloomberg Crude Oil, SCO that works with short crude oil futures contracts, loses -10% in one week,

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch

Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund USO, which contains not only crude oil futures, but also natural gas, diesel and gasoline futures, with less volatility, is down as well as the underlying assets, up +6%.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-USO/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-USO/

The arbitrage between the prices of both funds was +4% weekly difference.

4 Execution of an algorithm or method to generate cash flow on a long term portfolio or with money in the account.

Our procedure involves reviewing volumes, volatility, technical analysis on short and long term support and resistance charts.

This is our favorite strategy.

The Magnificent 7, which drive the stock indexes with more than 60% due to their traded volumes, were flying with NVDA , here the chart of the fund that groups them together. MAGS

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAGS?p=MAGS&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAGS?p=MAGS&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA?p=NVDA&.tsrc=fin-srch

5 Analysis of last week’s forecast results

Volatility, VIX -10% and euphoria in the markets, very attentive, changes can come quickly.
SP500 between 4920 support and 5029 resistance, as announced in this report.

Watch video

6 Forecast for next week:

We will compare and hypothesize with the yields of oil, Gold, the SPY, crude oil and the 10-year bond.

Lots of volatility due to CPI inflation data.

We will use our method for stocks in ranges of 4,900 support and 5030 resistance on the SP500 for entries and exits. May vary if a black swan appears.

Weekly performance of the US $ 1,000 investment challenge, over 18 weeks:

BAC Bank of America Corporation
100,188

GLDS PDR Gold Shares
198,55

GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
104,96

TSLA Tesla, Inc.
100,8

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
269,4

QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
108,46

META Meta Platforms, Inc.
117,6

Amount $ 999,958

Yield 19.97%.

The portfolio is yielding 19.97%, due to the increases in SPY.

Venezuelan market

Price of the dollar vs Bs
BCV : Bs 36.29
Unofficial : Bs 37.89

Parallel dollar price falls. Official dollar stable.

NOTE: We do not recommend investments, we only give our opinions.
For special courses or investment management contact us at : Instagram @coachraultorrealba or email : editor@petroleumworld.com

____________________________________________

Raúl Torrealba Ramos, B.A. in Administration and Accounting, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Caracas; Lawyer, Universidad Metropolitana, Caracas, is an experienced financial analyst since 1990. The views expressed are not necessarily those of EnergiesNet.

Editor’s note: This article is published as an opinion and is not recommended for investment. All comments submitted and posted on EnergiesNet do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed and is not an endorsement by EnergiesNet or Petroleumworld.

Energiesnet.com 02 11 2024

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