02/ 23 Closing Prices / revised 02/23/2024 21:59  GMT 02/22   OPEC Basket  82.90 + 0.91  | 02/23    Mexico Basket (MME)   $72. 22 -2.05 | 01/13    Venezuela Basket (Merey)  $66.50  +1.30   | 02/23     NYMEX WTI Texas Intermediate April  CLJ24   $76.49 -2.12 | 02/23    ICE Brent April BRNJ24     $81.62 -2.05 | 02/23     NYMEX Gasoline March  RBH24   $2.28  -2.5% |  02/23    NYMEX  Heating Oil March  HOH24   $2.69   -2.3%   | 02/23    Natural Gas March NGH24    $1.60  -7.5% | 02/23    Active U.S. Rig Count (Oil & Gas)    626   +5  | 02/23    USD/MXN Mexican Peso  17.1166  (data live  | 02/23     EUR/USD    1.0821  (data live)  | 02/23    US/Bs. (Bolivar)   $36.06980000  ( data BCV)  

Report: +Positive Cash Flow (January 7, 2024) – Raul Torrealba (video)

Week #1 of 2024, Report on ideas for positive cash flow.
Watch video: Report on ideas for positive cash flow.

Week #1 of 2024, Report on ideas for positive cash flow.

Market Report

Update of material financial information.
January 2 – 5, 2023

1 Macroeconomic Environment:

Week ending:

 Apple downgraded by Barclays Ba
Watch video : Apple downgraded by Barclays Bank

Apple downgraded by Barclays Bank

AAPL:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-AAPL/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-AAPL/

AAPL shares were pressured: 1) downgraded to underweight from equal weight because Barclay’s said channel checks show weakness in iPhone volumes, as well as a lack of recovery in Mac and iPad. and wearables; 2) Apple’s share of the global premium smartphone market has declined to 71% in 2023 from 75% in 2022, according to Counterpoint Research’s Market Pulse Service, mainly due to Huawei’s resurrection in China driven by the Mate 60 series.

Start 2024 with profit-taking and the SP 500 touching support points , 4697.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC

The Fed minutes verified the statement from the last board meeting.
The December employment situation showed no surprises, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7% and the cost per hour of labor unchanged at 34.3.

Reverse Repos, with which the Fed injects liquidity into the system, fell to 694,478, in the initial short week of the year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

The ETF grouping HYG Corporate Bonds also fell in price, as did the market benchmark: -1.28%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYG?p=HYG&.tsrc=fin-srch

Market liquidity declined again for this first short week.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSP
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSP

The SP500 price range was 4786 high and 4697 low.

Next Week

Consumer price index, inflation and producer index, manufacturing inflation data are coming.

The Fed’s next monetary policy meeting is less than 23 days away on January 31, 2024.
93.5% that they will not go up and 6.5% that they will, the expectations today.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

2 Micro

The volatility of market prices rose 6.37% this week to 13.35, clearly anticipating last week this movement when it touched 12.00% in the first half of the year.

https://www.cboe.com/
https://www.cboe.com/

Crude oil prices up on low volume for the week at 73.95

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF?p=CL%3DF
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF?p=CL%3DF
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD

Bitcoin lost some room but solid at 44,183

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITSTAMP
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITSTAMP

Many are awaiting approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the SEC at its Jan. 11 meeting.

3 Build a long-term portfolio

The two energy concentrated Funds that we follow every week followed the trend of the underlying asset , oil.
This week the energy ETF markets moved like this:

The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Bloomberg Crude Oil, SCO which works with short crude oil futures contracts, is up +6% in one week, on less volume.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?p=SCO&.tsrc=fin-srch

Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund USO, which contains not only crude oil futures, but also natural gas, diesel and gasoline futures, with less volatility, rose +2.22%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USO?p=USO&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USO?p=USO&.tsrc=fin-srch

The arbitrage between the prices of both funds was +3.78% weekly difference.

4 Execution of an algorithm or method to generate cash flow on a long term portfolio or with money in the account.

We look as we usually do at volumes, volatility, technical analysis on short and long term support and resistance charts.

This is our favorite strategy.

The Magnificent 7, which drive the price indexes due to their traded volumes, were all down, traders expect trend reversal this week.

5 Analysis of last week’s forecast results.

Positive so far.
The SP500 breaks the 4700 support, albeit without forcefulness.

Volatility rises.

The 10-year bond yield rises by 2% to 4.04% and as a consequence its price falls.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=%

Gold -1,34%
OIL +1,59%
10 Year Bond +2%
SPY -!,85

6 Forecast for the week ahead:

We will compare and hypothesize on the yields of oil , Gold, SPY, crude oil and the 10-year Bond.
Less liquidity this week entering the market.

We will use our method for stocks in ranges of 4,670 support and 4800 resistance in the SP500 for entries in and exits. Watch for.

Weekly performance of the US $ 1,000 investment challenge, in 15 weeks:

The portfolio is yielding 13%, still rising, down from the close of 2023. We will be rotating the portfolio soon.

Venezuelan market

Price of the dollar vs Bs}

BCV : Bs 36.03 +0.10

Unofficial : Bs 38.51 -1.01

BCV was intervening in the exchange tables, the parallel dropped Bs 1.

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Raúl Torrealba Ramos, B.A. in Administration and Accounting, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Caracas; Lawyer, Universidad Metropolitana, Caracas, is an experienced financial analyst since 1990. The views expressed are not necessarily those of EnergiesNet.

Editor’s note: This article is published as an opinion and is not recommended for investment. All comments submitted and posted on EnergiesNet do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed and is not an endorsement by EnergiesNet or Petroleumworld.

EnergiesNet.com 01 01 2024

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