06/11  Closing Prices / revised 06/12/2024 07:53 GMT 06/11 OPEC Basket  $82.36   +$1.43 cents 06/11 Mexico Basket (MME) $72.63  +$0.43  cents  | 04/30 Venezuela Basket (Merey)   $74.91   +$3.93 cents | 06/11 NYMEX WTI Texas Intermediate July CLN24 $77.90  +$0.16 cents  | 06/11 ICE Brent August  BRNQ24    $81.92  +$0.29 cents  | 06/11 NYMEX Gasoline June RBN24  $2.40  +0.1%  |  06/11 NYMEX  Heating Oil July  RBN 24    $2.42  +0.3% | 06/11 Natural Gas July NGN24  $3.12   +7.7%  | 06/07 Active U.S. Rig Count (Oil & Gas)   594  -6  | 06/12 USD/MXN Mexican Peso   18.6503  (data live)  | 06/12 EUR/USD     1.0745 (data live)  | 06/12 US/Bs. (Bolivar)   $36.43850000 ( data BCV)

Report: Positive Cash Flow + (March 1, 2024) – Raúl Torrealba (video)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnprR32Fwac
Watch video: Week #9 of 2024, Week ‘s report on ideas for positive cash flow

Market Report

Building Income:

Week #9 of 2024, Report on ideas for positive cash flow.

Update on relevant financial information.
February 25-29, 2024

1 Macroeconomic Environment:

Week ending:

A week full of optimism .

US gross domestic product at 3.2

Semana que termina:

Una semana llena de optimismo .

Producto interno bruto USA en 3,2

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Personal expense data well 0.3

https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income

In addition to the economic data, markets are encouraged by good corporate results, up 0.9% on the SP 500 at all-time highs.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC

Less liquidity was collected by the Fed through Reverse Repos, giving more volume to the markets.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

The 10-year bond also rises.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX

Corporate bonds are stable.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYG?.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYG?.tsrc=fin-srch

Próxima Semana

Las probabilidades de aumento de tasas de intereses es de solo 4% , contra 96% que se mantienen o bajan.

CME FedWatch Tool

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

2 Micro

Crude oil prices rose almost 5% to 79 , so keep your eyes open for energy prices.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF

Oil prices settle 2% higher, lifted by rising Middle East tensions. OPEC+ seen weighing decision on extending voluntary production cuts

Market Drivers

“Geopolitical tensions have become an increasingly bullish influence on the market as we move further into 2024,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

Gaza health officials said scores of Palestinian civilians were killed Thursday after Israeli troops opened fire near an aid convoy, the Wall Street Journal reported.

President Joe Biden said the deaths would complicate talks around a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, according to news reports. Biden had said earlier this week that he had seen prospects for an agreement as early as Monday.

Investors are also awaiting a decision by members of OPEC+ — made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — on whether to extend voluntary production cuts.

“Sticking to the voluntary production cuts until the end of the year would be a strong signal and should therefore be seen as price-positive” because the oil market would remain tight until the year’s end, Carsten Fritsch, commodity strategist at Commerzbank, said in a note. An extension only into the second quarter is “likely to be priced in and should therefore not move prices significantly.”

OPEC+ countries were considering an extension of the cuts, which amount to 2.2 million barrels a day, into the second quarter, Reuters reported earlier this week, with some officials pointing to the prospect of an extension to the year’s end. The report said a decision on an extension is expected in the first week of March.

The oil market is “well balanced,” with prices well supported in the high $70s, and a path to the $80s in sight if “OPEC+ confirms rollover of its cuts and once the [U.S. Federal Reserve] clarifies timing for rate cuts,” said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners.

The high $70s oil price is ‘so attractive for U.S. producers that drilling rigs are firing on all cylinders, creating a nuance for OPEC, who is annoyed by seeing its lunch eaten by the U.S. shale.’ — Manish Raj, Velandera Energy Partners

The high-$70s oil price is “so attractive for U.S. producers that drilling rigs are firing on all cylinders, creating a nuance for OPEC, who is annoyed by seeing its lunch eaten by the U.S. shale,” he told MarketWatch. 

Baker Hughes Co. BKR, +1.25% on Friday reported a second straight weekly rise in the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil, which were up by three to 506 this week. That implies an upcoming rise in oil production.

“OPEC has found itself in a hole that keeps getting deeper” with more U.S. shale production, “and yet OPEC has no choice but to keep extending its cuts that makes even more room for the U.S. shale,” said Raj.

Meanwhile, Thursday’s U.S. inflation data was a “relief since it did not top estimates like the CPI report did earlier in February,” said Sevens Report Research’s Richey. That eases some of the hawkish Federal Reserve policy worries and is “helping soft-landing optimism return to markets, a demand-side positive influence for oil.” 

Source: MarketWatch

Price moves

  • West Texas Intermediate crude CL00, +1.97% for April delivery CL.1, +1.97% CLJ24, +1.97% rose $1.71, or 2.2%, to settle at $79.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices based on the front month ended nearly 4.6% higher for the week after finishing 3.2% higher for the month of February, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
  • May Brent crude BRN00, -0.11% BRNK24, -0.11%, the global benchmark, climbed $1.64, or 2%, at $83.55 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, with the contract ending 3.4% higher for the week.
  • April gasoline RBJ24, +1.16% added 1.3% to $2.61 a gallon, up 4.2% for the week
  • April heating oil HOJ24, +1.87% tacked on nearly 2.1% to $2.70 a gallon, gaining 2.4% for the week.
  • Natural gas for April delivery NGJ24, -1.29% settled at $1.84 per million British thermal units, down 1.3% Friday. Prices saw an 8% gain on the week, after posting a February loss of over 11%

Source: MarketWatch

Bitcoin broke its all-time record high and reached 63,000 last Wednesday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD

3 Building a long-term portfolio

This week the energy ETF markets moved like this:

The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Bloomberg Crude Oil, SCO which works with short crude oil futures contracts, loses -5.4% in a week,

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCO?.tsrc=fin-srch

Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund USO, which contains not only crude oil futures, but also natural gas, diesel and gasoline futures, with less volatility, is down as well as the underlying assets, up

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USO?.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USO?.tsrc=fin-srch

The arbitrage between the prices of both funds was +0.50% per week.

4 Execution of an algorithm or method to generate cash flow on a long-term portfolio or with money in the account.

Our procedure involves reviewing volumes, volatility, technical analysis on support charts and short and long term resistances.

It is our favorite strategy.

The Magnificent 7, which drive the stock indexes with more than 60% due to their traded volumes, all up, with META up 5% announcing a dividend and share buyback program. Joy for the markets

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META?.tsrc=fin-srch

5 Analysis of previous week’s forecast results.

Volatility, VIX drops 7% as a result of the collective euphoria of confidence.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX?.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX?.tsrc=fin-srch

The pullback scenario did not occur, and the stock continues to rise.

6 Forecast for the week ahead:

We will compare and hypothesize with oil, Gold, SPY, crude and 10 year bond yields.

With employment data, manufacturing data and congressional testimony from Fed officials coming, there will be movement.

We will use our method for stocks and options in ranges of 4900 support and 5150 resistance. Everything will depend on macroeconomic data.

Weekly performance of the US $ 1,000 investment challenge, in 19 weeks:

BAC Bank of America Corporation
100,188


GLDS PDR Gold Shares
198,55

GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
104,96


TSLA Tesla, Inc.
100,8


SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
269,4


QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
108,46


META Meta Platforms, Inc.
117,6

Amount $999,958
Yield 23.97%.

The portfolio is yielding 23.97%, thanks to inflation and volatility data.

Raul Torrealba: Yield

Venezuelan market
According to data from the Financial Observatory, inflation in January dropped to 107.4%.

Price of the dollar vs Bs
BCV: Bs 36.25
Unofficial : Bs 38.08

NOTE: We do not recommend investments, we only give our opinions.
For special courses or investment management, please contact us at : Instagram @coachraultorrealba or email : editor@petroleumworld.com

_________________________________________________________

Raúl Torrealba Ramos, B.A. in Administration and Accounting, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Caracas; Lawyer, Universidad Metropolitana, Caracas, is an experienced financial analyst since 1990. The views expressed are not necessarily those of EnergiesNet.

Editor’s note: This article is published as an opinion and is not recommended for investment. All comments submitted and posted on EnergiesNet do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed and is not an endorsement by EnergiesNet or Petroleumworld.

Energiesnet.com 03 01 2024

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