By Dave Lawler

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s unexpected offensive into the Russian interior may breathe new life into the counteroffensive across the border in Ukraine.

The big picture: Ukraine’s forces have made only gradual progress so far in attacking well-defended Russian positions in the south and east of Ukraine. Wagner mercenaries, meanwhile, took control of the major Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and seemed to face little resistance as they covered three-quarters of the roughly 600 miles from there to Moscow.

On the one hand: The short-lived uprising in Russia doesn’t appear to have left any major gaps for Ukraine to exploit. Wagner forces were not playing a major role in Russia’s defenses, and the mutiny appears to have ended without Russian units being pulled out of Ukraine to help repel it, analysts say.

• Wagner did play a central role in the long and bloody battle for Bakhmut, but moved out after declaring victory there as Prigozhin feuded with the Ministry of Defense over plans to integrate his fighters into the conventional military.
  
  
• “[Wagner] units were not pulled off the line, hence Russian defense (especially in the south) is unlikely to suffer immediately from their absence,” notes Michael Kofman, a top analyst of Russia’s military at CNA.
  
  
• According to the Kremlin, Wagner fighters who did not take part in the mutiny will still be allowed to sign contracts with the defense ministry.
  
  
• “The fact that Wagner is returning to their training camps with military equipment indicates that the Kremlin intends to maintain at least certain elements of Wagner’s manpower rather than seek to immediately demobilize them,” Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, tells Axios.

On the other hand: It’s unclear whether Moscow will be able to effectively integrate Wagner’s forces, which include some of Russia’s most battle-hardened fighters, after such a public fracture.

• Wagner units reportedly shot down seven Russian aircraft and killed 13 airmen during the push toward Moscow.

Then there’s the psychological blow for civilian leaders and front-line soldiers alike.

• Prigozhin challenged President Vladimir Putin’s narrative around the Ukraine invasion — claiming it was launched not to defend Russia but to enrich an “oligarchic clan” — and seemed to challenge the president’s very hold on power.
  
  
• More than a year after Russian tanks first rolled toward Kyiv, Russian authorities were blocking roads and bridges to defend their own capital against a potential coup.
  
  
• “Prigozhin’s rebellion has illustrated that Russian forces lack reserves in many rear areas and almost certainly will degrade the morale of Russian personnel in Ukraine,” Stepanenko says, noting that Kyiv might try to use that information to its advantage.

Putin, meanwhile, “must be wondering whether it is a good idea to have so much of his army committed to the fight in Ukraine,” writes Lawrence Freedman, a professor of war studies at King’s College London.

• Angela Stent, a Russia expert at Brookings, tells Axios the weekend’s events may not have much direct impact on Putin’s war plans or his hold on power, but they will have planted seeds of doubt within the Russian elite that could bloom in unpredictable ways.
  
  
• Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu made a public appearance today, and Putin is also likely to retain his top general, Valery Gerasimov, lest it appear he’s giving into Prigozhin’s demands to fire them, says Stent.

Part II: What Putin and Prigozhin are saying

Putin and Prigozhin both broke their silence today about the deal that was struck to avert a direct clash between them.

• Putin declared that the organizers of the “rebellion” would be “brought to justice,” though he did not name Prigozhin directly.

What he’s saying: “This is criminal activity, which is aimed at weakening the country, and this was a colossal threat to us,” Putin said.

• “Any kind of blackmail is doomed to failure,” he added, calling the rebellion an act of “suicide” that played into the hands of Ukraine and its Western backers.
  
  
• The vow to punish the culprits contrasts with an earlier Kremlin claim that Prigozhin would be allowed to go into exile in neighboring Belarus as part of the deal.
  
  
• Putin reiterated another promise, that Wagner fighters — the majority of whom, he claimed, remained loyal or pushed for the convoy to turn back — will still be allowed to sign contracts to join the conventional military, move to Belarus, or “go back to your homes.”

Between the lines: Putin claimed Russian society and, in particular, the security services, had “saved Russia” through their loyalty and patriotism.

• In fact, there were few public displays of support for Putin from officials or ordinary citizens, notes Stent. “Everyone was waiting to see which way the wind was blowing.”

The other side: Prigozhin insisted that he never intended to overthrow the Russian government, but launched his “march of justice” to prevent the destruction of Wagner and protest against the way the war in Ukraine is being prosecuted.

Part III: Wagner after Prigozhin?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov promised that Wagner would continue its work in the Central African Republic and Mali, training soldiers and protecting those countries’ leaders.

The big picture: For a decade, Wagner has operated in unstable countries like CAR, Mali, Syria and Libya, securing natural resources and furthering Putin’s global aims along the way.

• Analysts have long believed the group could not have been formed and deployed all over the world without Putin’s blessing.
  
  
• A presidential adviser in CAR told AFP today that its security deal is with Moscow, which had then subcontracted to Wagner but can “send us a new contingent” if it so chooses.

“Wagner is very important in terms of projecting Russian influence in Africa and the Middle East, and making a lot of money for the Kremlin and for Wagner, and so I would be very surprised if it were dissolved,” Stent says.

• Prigozhin is the group’s leader and spokesman, and played a particularly visible role in recruiting Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine, says Stent.
  
  
• But operations elsewhere have their own commanders who likely already operated with autonomy while Prigozhin was focused on Ukraine, she says. “I think the organization itself can continue in some form in these parts of the global south where they’re operating now.”

What to watch: They may have to continue without Prigozhin.

• A former convict, Prigozhin has known Putin since the 1990s in St. Petersburg, when he was running a restaurant and Putin was a rising politician.
  
  
• After Putin took power, Prigozhin won so many government contracts that he was nicknamed “Putin’s chef.”
  
  
• His interests soon stretched far beyond catering. He was indicted in the U.S. in 2018 for his role in running the Internet Research Agency, which spread disinformation online during the 2016 election campaign.
  
  
• Prigozhin long denied any links to Wagner before becoming the group’s public face and the biggest threat to his former patron in the Kremlin.

Go deeper: What to know about Prigozhin and Wagner

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Dave Lawler, journalist based in Washington D.C. and covering world news for Axios. Former Washington Correspondent for the Daily Telegraph. Energiesnet.com does not necessarily share these views.

Editor’s Note: This article was originally published by Axios World on June 26, 2023. EnergiesNet.com reproduces this article in the interest of our readers. All comments posted and published on EnergiesNet.com, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of EnergiesNet.com or Petroleumworld.

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EnergiesNet.com 06 27 2023