A new poll conducted by Cadem between July 20-22 reveals a shrinking gap between approval and rejection for Chile’s constitutional plebiscite, to be held on September 4. In the poll, 47% of Chilean citizens rejected the proposed constitution, 39% approved it, and 14% were not sure/no response. At an 8% gap, this is the smallest difference between rejection and approval since June 10. 

Despite a high rate of rejection for the referendum, few voters want to keep the constitution as is. Just 21% support rejecting the new constitution and maintaining the current constitution from the Pinochet dictatorship. Many voters are still interested in a new constitution, yet it remains unclear just what form a new document would take. According to James Bosworth and Lucy Hale at the Latin America Risk Report, “To the dismay of the new constitution’s staunch supporters, Boric recently announced that he would be willing to pursue a rewrite if the referendum fails. This announcement undoubtedly weakens voters’ likelihood of supporting the referendum because it pits the new text against some hypothetical ideal text rather than the deeply flawed 1980 constitution.” 

Just 1% of fundraising thus far has gone towards campaigning to approve the referendum, with 99% supporting rejection, reports BioBioChile. The outlet also reported yesterday that representative Jorge Alessandri of the right-wing Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI) party has argued that José Antonio Kast, the runner-up in last year’s presidential election, should not be vocal in his support for the rejection campaign. Alessandri believes that Kast may alienate polarized voters and prevent the rejection campaign from getting the 50% plus 1 needed. 

 Argentina

• The IMF had its first meeting with Argentina following the abrupt resignation of Martín Guzmán in early July, reports Bloomberg. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, called the meeting “productive.” (Twitter) 
  
  
• “Mauricio Claver-Carone, president of the Inter-American Development Bank, published a letter in the Wall Street Journal Monday laying out the bank’s concerns” about Argentina, “(hinting) that (the bank) won’t approve new funding until the government gets its house in order,” reports Bloomberg.

Brazil

• Investigations show that Bolsonaro’s policies to increase access to guns have made it cheaper and easier for organized crime to obtain arms, reports Estadão. 
  
  
• As civil-military relations become a central issue ahead of Brazil’s October 2 election, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirms the US belief that militaries should be under civilian control, reports Reuters. 
  
  
• The biggest gun collectors, shooters, and hunters group (CAC, in Portuguese) is launching a political party and 34 candidates for Congress, notes Estadão.
  
  
• Brazilian presidential frontrunner Lula da Silva would renew talks with the European Union over an EU-Mercosur trade deal, should he win the election. (Reuters) 

Central America

• An estimated 80 percent of illegal weapons in Guatemala come from the United States, whose lax gun control laws undermine Guatemala’s own regulations, writes The Progressive.

El Salvador

• Despite the Bukele administration’s mass arrests targeted at gang members, seizures of rifles and other firearms were shockingly low, highlighting the gangs’ continued strength and ability to attack, says Insight Crime. 
  
  
• The US State Department released new additions to the Engel List last week, including members of Bukele’s cabinet and other close allies. Bukele called the additions a violation of El Salvador’s sovereignty, reports El Faro.

Haiti

• Clashes between rival gangs in Haiti have left over 470 people dead, injured, or missing, says the United Nations. (France24)

Honduras

• Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of US Homeland Security, will meet this week with Honduran President Xiomara Castro to discuss curbing increased migration from Central America, reports WWLP.

Mexico

• 47 women were intentionally burned between January and June of this year, according to Mexico’s Ministry of Health. Less than 60 percent of cases were reported, writes Animal Político.
  
  
• AMLO’s second major infrastructure project, the Maya Train project, is 70% over budget, reports Bloomberg. The initiative, originally capped at $11.8 billion, has now reached a budget of $20 billion, following rising costs of shipping and raw materials and spiraling inflation.

Peru

• Peruvian President Pedro Castillo reaches his first year in office, despite threats and actions of impeachment, constant cabinet reshuffling, and a divided Congress, reports the Washington Post.
  
  
• Peruvian minings executives are losing faith in the Castillo government, according to Reuters.

Venezuela

• “The failure of the sanctions has left the US with two bad options: continue a policy of sanctions that are not working or remove sanctions against a regime that has done nothing to earn their removal. Being two bad options, it is easier to argue against either option than in favor of one,” writes James Bosworth in World Politics Review.

Jordi Amaral / Latin America Daily Briefing
http://latinamericadailybriefing.blogspot