Recent polling shows a growing lead for Lula ahead of Brazil’s presidential election next Sunday, October 2. A new Datafolha poll shows Lula rising to 47% (from 45% last poll) versus 33% for Bolsonaro (no change). Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet come in a distant third and fourth with 7% and 5%, respectively. As noted in yesterday’s LADB, Lula has been receiving a surge in last minute endorsements from rivals and holdouts. But despite Lula’s significant lead, Goldman Sachs and multiple hedge funds are reportedly telling clients that the election is “likely to be tighter than polls are signaling,” with a runoff likely, reports Bloomberg. If no candidate reaches a majority in the first round, the runoff election will be held on October 30. 

Bolsonaro has criticized Brazil’s electronic voting system and preemptively declared a likelihood of fraud in the event he loses, claiming that polling does not reflect the reality on the ground. Earlier this week, a Datafolha researcher was physically attacked by a Bolsonaro supporter while conducting an interview, reports Folha. Amid concerns of potential political violence and an attempt by Bolsonaro to not recognize the election results, Senator Bernie Sanders has introduced a resolution to ensure the United States swiftly recognizes Brazil’s election results and does not back or remain mum on any potential attempts to undermine democracy in the country. But the bill has stalled and may not receive the votes to pass: “We’ve not been able to get one Republican member of the Senate to make it clear that there must be free and fair elections in Brazil,” Sanders told The Washington Post. At the Washington Post, Greg Sargent and Paul Waldman add, “Some GOP reluctance to join Sanders’s resolution may come from this possible scenario: Bolsonaro loses and attempts to stay in power anyway, comparing himself to Trump. Then Trump publicly rallies to his defense. The result would be a conflict with Trump on one side and (probably) the Biden administration on the other, and every Republican knows which side they’d want to be on.” 

On Tuesday, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announced that it would authorize the armed forces to unofficially audit the voting system through checks of vote machine receipts in 568 localities across 11 states. However, the Brazilian Report notes that the ​​Federal Accounts Court will already be checking printouts in over 4,100 localities. 

More Brazil

• “A record number of indigenous leaders, most of them women, are running for federal office in Brazil’s election next month, in a backlash against the policies of President Jair Bolsonaro. As destruction of the Amazon rainforest, invasions of indigenous lands and violence against their peoples have surged under Bolsonaro, several of these candidates say they are joining the political fray with a sense of urgency,” notes Reuters.
  
  
• Oliver Stuenkel writes at Foreign Policy that despite Bolsonaro’s anti-China rhetoric, Beijing wants the incumbent president to win re-election. 

Argentina

• On Thursday evening, the ruling Frente de Todos party’s proposed bill to expand Argentina’s Supreme Court from 5 to 15 judges narrowly passed in the Senate, reports MercoPress. The bill, with 36 votes in favor and 33 against, will now be sent to the House of Deputies. 
  
  
• Though Sergio Massa’s appointment as Minister of the Economy was a bold move meant to attract foreign investors, widespread demonstrations – especially following updates to Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s corruption case or inflation reaching three digits – have the potential to disrupt Alberto Fernández’s last year in office, says America’s Quarterly.

Central America

• “Climate change forces people to leave their homes and then high levels of violence force them to leave their country,” says Mary Speck, Ph.D. at the US Institute of Peace. Climate change is one of the many factors at play for citizens from Mexico and Central America who choose to migrate to the US.

Colombia

• “Rates of mass killings, assassinations of human rights activists and attacks on police have all shot up since Petro took office,” as warring criminal organizations seek to gain advantages prior to engaging in peace talks with the Colombian government, reports The Guardian.
  
  
• Given the experience of Petro’s security strategy thus far, “The prospects for whether security improves under any administration are ultimately going to be determined by their ability to bring governance to populations and territories, both urban and rural. If they don’t have a plan and the resources to consolidate control of the territory, it doesn’t matter whether the government bombs the bad guys or takes them out for a beer,” writes James Bosworth at the Latin America Risk Report. 
  
  
• In the Washington Post, Catalina Gil Pinzón outlines the three main requirements, and also barriers, for Petro’s plan for ‘total peace’: the need for a clear security strategy from the government, for armed groups to cease in illegal economic activity including narcotrafficking, and to strengthen local governing capacities such as justice system reform and providing economic opportunities for youth, among others.
  
  
• At the UNGA, Petro asked the audience to determine if cocaine, carbron, or petroleum was the most poisonous to society, creating a strong comparison between narcotrafficking and environmental damage and highlighting a focus on climate change and the environment, say analysts at W Radio.

Costa Rica

• On Wednesday, Costa Rica’s congress approved the creation of a special commission to investigate irregularities and potential illegal financing in Rodrigo Chaves’s presidential campaign, reports Reuters.

Ecuador

• Ecuador will restructure $4.4 billion of its outstanding debt after President Guillermo Lasso reached a deal with China, reports the Wall Street Journal. This move will save the country $1 billion over three years.

El Salvador

• Claudia Ortiz, a leading opposition figure, says she will not run for president in 2024, with the opposition planning to announce this year the construction of an alliance for legislative elections, according to an interview Ortiz gave to El Faro. 
  
  
• “The countries that have abolished term limits are among the poorest in Latin America. Those that allow a second term but only with a gap are the richest (Chile, Costa Rica and Uruguay) or among the fastest-growing (Panama and Peru),” reports the Economist, following Bukele’s announcement that he would seek reelection despite constitutional prohibitions.

Mexico

• “A powerful magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck Mexico early Thursday, causing at least two deaths, damaging buildings and setting off landslides,” reports AP. (see Tuesday’s LADB on another earthquake earlier this week) 
  
  
• Toyota will be able to finance around 8,600 hybrid cars after receiving a $225 million grant from BBVA Mexico in an effort to promote more hybrid vehicles, says Reuters. 
  
  
• A seemingly targeted attack in Guanajuato resulted in 10 men killed after unidentified gunmen opened fire in a bar, according to Reuters.

Peru

• José Williams was elected head of Peru’s Congress on September 12, drawing headlines due to his former military past in which he led a successful hostage rescue operation in 1997, writes Peru Reports.

Regional

• “The Inter-American Development Bank’s board of directors voted unanimously on Thursday to recommend firing President Mauricio Claver-Carone after an independent ethics investigation found misconduct… The recommendation throws the final decision regarding Latin America’s largest development bank to its senior-most body, the board of governors, which will vote from Friday through Tuesday,” reports Reuters. 
  
  
• The Nicolás Maduro government has retaken control of key regional fertilizer company Monomeros, based in Barranquilla, as a result of improved ties between Colombia and Venezuela following the inauguration of Colombian president Gustavo Petro, says Crónica Uno.
  
  
• The US Institute of Peace published an analysis of the Biden administration’s engagement – or lack thereof – with Latin America after almost two years in office, and highlights the US government’s approach towards specific countries including Colombia, Venezuela, Haiti, and Central American nations. 

Venezuela

• “Maroil Trading, owned by shipping tycoon Wilmer Ruperti, has taken over sales of almost all Venezuela’s exports of petroleum coke, a move that could reduce sanctions risks for clients,” reports Reuters.
  
  
• USAID announced almost $376 million in new humanitarian assistance in Latin America and the Caribbean for those affected by the Venezuelan migration crisis.

Arianna Kohan y Jordi Amaral / Latin America Daily Briefing
http://latinamericadailybriefing.blogspot