Myra P. Saefong and Williams Watts, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK
EnergiesNet.com 10 05 2022

Oil futures rose Tuesday, with U.S. prices settling at their highest in almost three weeks, a day ahead of a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, where producers are expected to consider a large production cut.

Price action

• West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery CL.1, -0.61% CL00, -0.61% CLX22, -0.61% rose $2.89, or 3.5%, to settle at $86.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after posting a gain of 5.2% on Monday. That was the highest front-month finish since Sept. 14, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
  
  
• December Brent crude BRN00, -0.50% BRNZ22, -0.50% gained $2.94, or 3.3%, to end at $91.80 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, the highest since Sept. 19.
  
  
• Back on Nymex, November gasoline RBX22, -1.66% rose 6.8% to $2.683 a gallon.
  
  
• November heating oil HOX22, -0.54% added nearly 5% at $3.5358 a gallon.
  
  
• November natural gas NGX22, -2.15% gained 5.7% to $6.837 per million British thermal units after losing 4.4% on Monday.

Market drivers

Crude-oil prices rose for a second day as expectations built for OPEC+ to deliver a cut of more than 1 million barrels a day on Wednesday when it holds its first in-person meeting since the start of the pandemic.

“An empirical approach to the present fundamentals leads us to believe benchmark WTI should be trading in the $75-$80 range, although the current unpredictability within the market brings a warranted volatility premium,” said Harry Altham, energy analyst, EMEA & Asia for StoneX Group, in market commentary. “It therefore stands to reason that OPEC+, while analysing the market ahead of the decision, will see an output cut as being justified within current market conditions.”

The oil-producing group is considering an output reduction of as much as 2 million barrels a day, and may also discuss smaller reductions from 1 million to 1.5 million barrels a day, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing delegates.

Analysts said the prospect of a large output cut has shifted the focus away from fears of global recession toward a tight physical market. A large cut in OPEC+’s production target, however, could result in a more modest reduction in actual output, analysts said, noting that the group was already producing well below its current target.

Read: Why an OPEC+ oil production cut could be less than meets the eye

“There are are only a handful of members who will actually need to reduce output if the group announces a large cut,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, in a note.

Read: OPEC+ could cut oil production because it’s trying to halt a sharp crude selloff

Citing figures from Bloomberg, Patterson noted that OPEC supply increased by 230,000 barrels a day in September to average 29.89 million barrels a day, with the rise driven largely by Libya, which is exempt from the output agreement and whose output grew by 120,000 barrels a day. But output from OPEC members that were part of the OPEC+ supply deal saw output average 25.53 million barrels a day last month, well below their target of 26.75 million barrels a day, he noted.

Also see: Why California is paying nearly 70% more for gasoline at the pump than the rest of the country

marketwatch.com 10 04 2022