Uncertainty about Trinidad’s Dragon gas deal grows as Trump clamps down on Venezuela
Caribbean Insight
LONDON
EnergiesNet.com 03 14 2025
The fate of Trinidad and Tobago’s highly anticipated Dragon gas deal with Venezuela has been thrown into uncertainty following a series of hardline measures by US President Donald Trump against the Maduro Administration.
The Trump administration’s recent policy reversals have cast doubt on whether the project, vital for Trinidad’s energy security and economic stability, can move forward as planned. On 26 February, President Trump announced the termination of a license granted under the Biden Administration that allowed US oil giant Chevron to operate in Venezuela.
“We are hereby reversing the concessions that crooked Joe Biden gave to Nicolás Maduro, of Venezuela, on the oil transaction agreement, dated 26 November 2022, and also having to do with electoral conditions within Venezuela, which have not been met by the Maduro regime,” said Trump on Truth Social.
Following Trump’s announcement, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed a broader crackdown on energy deals with Venezuela. “Today, pursuant to @POTUS directive, I am providing foreign policy guidance to terminate all Biden-era oil and gas licenses that have shamefully bankrolled the illegitimate Maduro regime,” said Rubio on social media.
Acting Prime Minister and Energy Minister Stuart Young admitted that the government could not guarantee the survival of the Dragon gas deal, which involves Trinidad’s National Gas Company (NGC) and multinational energy giant Shell.
“Can we provide any assurance at this stage? The answer is obviously no. Are we engaged with the right people, we believe? We think we are and we will continue to work, and at every step of the way, if there is something for us to report, we will,” said Young at a media briefing.
He added that Trinidad remains in contact with US Embassy officials, Shell, and BP to assess the impact of Washington’s latest moves. “At this stage, there has been no indication of any negative effect on Trinidad and Tobago,” Young said, while acknowledging the difficulty in predicting future US policy.
The Dragon gas project, initially signed in 2018 and revived under the Biden administration, is crucial for Trinidad’s energy security. The project is expected to supply 200mn cubic feet of natural gas per day by 2027, which is essential for keeping Trinidad’s liquefied natural gas and petrochemical industries running.
“This deal and that gas being delivered in 2027 is what is going to help us with the foreign exchange, it’s what’s going to help us continue paying the bills on your behalf, continuing in ensuring that there are drugs in the hospital, our children continue to receive education, and that is what we’ve consistently been fighting for,” said Young, chiding opposition officials for their recent comments on the deal.
He confirmed that Trinidad has made payments to Venezuela as part of the Dragon gas agreement. “The answer is yes, payments have been made with respect to Dragon,” he admitted, but declined to disclose specific figures, stating that Shell and NGC were handling those payments.
Reports indicate that Trinidad has been paying Venezuela approximately US$1mn per year in surface taxes, social contributions, and royalties as part of the agreement. Rubio’s comments about Maduro’s funding have raised concerns that these payments could become a political target in Washington.
With the Dragon deal facing uncertainty, the Trinidadian government is now focused on lobbying the US for an extension of its current license, which expires in October 2025. Sources close to the negotiations confirmed that Prime Minister Keith Rowley intends to push for an extension when he meets with US officials.
Shell and NGC remain optimistic about the project’s potential. The companies have completed geotechnical surveys and well data assessments and believe that at least 4.2tn cubic feet of gas is present in the Dragon field.
Meanwhile, Young, who is set to succeed Rowley as Prime Minister in March, vowed to continue advocating for the deal. However, the geopolitical stakes remain high. While Venezuela stands to gain an estimated US$30mn per month in revenue from Dragon’s gas sales, the deal’s survival hinges on US sanctions policy. Trinidad, for its part, must navigate a complex diplomatic landscape, balancing its economic interests with Washington’s shifting stance on Venezuela.
caribbean-council.org 03 10 2025
