The fatal shooting of a local Workers’ Party official in Foz do Iguaçu, by a supporter of President Jair Bolsonaro, is the most extreme of several concerning attacks in the electoral context, reports the Guardian. The number of politically motivated attacks so far in 2022 is higher than in the same period two years ago, ahead of municipal elections.

Experts are increasingly concerned about potential violence in the electoral context, particularly if Bolsonaro loses his reelection race, as polls predict. Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the electoral frontrunner, has pleaded with supporters to remain peaceful and avoid confrontation. The Workers’ Party leader has been wearing bulletproof vests in public events, reports the Associated Press.

Regional

• Commodity boom and bust cycles have long undermined Latin America’s democracies. Voters tend to support incumbents, or moderates, when they feel they are doing well, and opt for radical solutions (on both sides of the ideological spectrum) when they aren’t, writes Moisés Naím in Politico. “The problem is that where prosperity — and therefore political stability — depends on commodity prices, there’s little Latin American leaders can do to secure it on their own.”
  
  
• Traditionally, debate about migration has been polarized between sending and receiving countries, but last month’s Los Angeles Declaration “created a common language” for the first time, Andrew Selee of the Migration Policy Institute told the Economist. (See June 10’s post.)
  
  
• Several former Latin American presidents have parlayed their popularity into continued political relevance. “But their extended domination of national politics makes governing harder for their heirs—most of whom are uncharismatic, technocratic former ministers and senators without their own political constituencies,” writes Casey Cagley in the Journal of Democracy.
  
  
• Peruvian lawmakers approved a law preventing former presidents from leaving the country without congressional authorization for at least a year, providing an opportunity for investigators to examine their conduct in office. While some other countries in the region have adopted similar travel restrictions, most impose minimal or no limits on foreign travel for former leaders, according to the Wilson Center’s Weekly Asado.

Regional Relations

• China has asked the United Nations Security Council to vote on banning small arms to Haiti, sanctioning the Caribbean nation’s gang leaders, and even sending a regional police force to the violence-plagued island, reports AFP. (See yesterday’s post.)
  
  
• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s visit to Washington this week put a spotlight on supply chains, and the failure of nearshoring aspirations due to obstacles in Mexico and the U.S., according to the Latin America Brief.
  
  
• The United States agreed to increase the number of work visas for Mexicans and Central Americans during high-level talks in Washington this week, AMLO told the press yesterday. (Reuters)

Argentina

• Argentina’s economic policy makers must balance between unpopular anti-inflation measures and political leaders who believe “that a muddling-through scenario of tightening controls and ignoring market realities is still viable. A miscalculation could lead to triple-digit inflation, widespread social unrest, and the early exit of President Alberto Fernández,” writes Arturo Porzecanski at the AULA Blog.
  
  
• Yesterday, social movements marched in Buenos Aires demanding a universal basic income and greater social aid in the midst of a crushing economic crisis. The marchers included groups allied to the governing Frente de Todos coalition and others farther to the left, reports Infobae.
  
  
• Frente de Todos lawmakers are working on a proposal for a broad “complimentary income” project with Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s support, according to Página 12.

Chile

• Chile’s proposed constitution has become a best-seller in Santiago, where long lines have been forming outside bookstores and street stalls of people looking to pick up the recently-finalized text, reports Reuters.

Colombia

• The incoming Petro administration in Colombia has a tremendous opportunity to speed up implementation of the landmark 2016 Peace Agreement, the United Nations’ top Colombian official Carlos Ruiz Massieu told the Security Council.
  
  
• Over the past two years, WhatsApp has become one of Colombia’s most popular e-commerce tools, reports Rest of World.

Peru

• Foreign Policy’s The Catch podcast examines the current state of global fishing by tracking squid. The first episode looks at how the race to catch squid off the coast of Peru is increasingly pitting local artisanal fishers against huge multinational fleets.

Music

• “El Bebito Fiu Fiu,” produced by Peruvian musician Tito Silva, became a worldwide viral hit, but few know that it lampoons the mawkish language allegedly used by former Peruvian president Martín Vizcarra in leaked text messages to a former congressional candidate, Zully Pinchi. (Guardian)
  
  
  
  Jordana Timerman/Latin America Daily Briefing
  http://latinamericadailybriefing.blogspot