The Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel group announced yesterday that they would convene peace talks after the first week of November. The negotiations serve as part of Petro’s “Total Peace” plan, with Colombia’s high commissioner for peace, Danilo Rueda, having left for Havana to dialogue with ELN representatives shortly after Petro’s inauguration. The negotiations will be based in Caracas, and the Maduro government will serve as a guarantor, alongside Norway and Cuba. (Al Jazeera, Reuters)

Previous attempts at peace talks with the ELN have failed despite successful demobilizations and negotiations between the Colombian government and other armed groups, such as the AUC and FARC. The most recent negotiations, begun under the Santos administration, “began in Ecuador, later moving to Cuba, but were called off by Santos’ successor Ivan Duque because the ELN refused to halt hostilities and killed 22 police cadets in a Bogota bomb attack,” notes Reuters. As InSight Crime explains in a new investigation, negotiations are complicated by the ties between the ELN and the Maduro government: “while the Venezuelan government has so far expressed support for a renewed peace process, it is far from clear what role it will play, as the connections between the guerrillas and the Venezuelan state have also helped the autocratic regime of President Nicolás Maduro consolidate power.” 

Argentina

• Inflation in Argentina is expected to hit 112% in 2023, according to JP Morgan analysts, reports Ámbito. 

Brazil

• Despite hype about polling misses, the aggregate of polling at a national level was actually pretty accurate, writes James Bosworth at the Latin America Risk Report, commenting, “While Lula is likely to win the election, the first round results have left the political situation even more difficult for him… Lula will need centrists to govern, but even with them, he’ll face serious checks on his power from a strong opposition in the Congress and at the local level.” 
  
  
• Lula picked up an endorsement from fourth-placed Ciro Gomes—albeit with Gomes not naming the frontrunner once during endorsement video—and is also set to win the endorsement of third-placed Simone Tebet. Together, Gomes and Tebet represent just over 7% of Sunday’s vote. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, has picked up the endorsements of Minas Gerais governor re-elect Romeu Zema and current São Paulo governor Rodrigo Gomes, who did not make the runoff in his reelection bid. (Reuters, Estadão)
  
  
• Police kill nearly 17 people per day in Brazil, almost triple the 2013 total and nine times the US total, notes LA Times. 

Ecuador

• “A clash between prisoners in one of Ecuador’s largest jails – in Latacunga – has left at least 15 inmates dead,” reports BBC. More than 400 have died in prison fights in the country since 2020. 

El Salvador

• A new International Crisis Group report explores El Salvador’s state of emergency and mass arrests, arguing that the policy is unsustainable, and “Rather than commit to strong-arm tactics for the long term, the government should provide an off-ramp for the thousands of gang members willing to build new lives in law-abiding society. The country’s main foreign partners should support these efforts and revive their cooperation with San Salvador.” 

Haiti

• Rosy Auguste Ducéna writes at Just Security about her experience working at a human rights organization in Haiti, arguing that to break out of the current crisis in the country, “The U.S. should stop propping up an illegitimate government preying upon the Haitian people and support the establishment of a representative transitional government. Only a transitional government with broad support will have the legitimacy to stabilize the country and eventually mount participatory elections that can install more effective leaders.” 

Mexico

• Mexico is prepared to take a US gun case to the Supreme Court, on the basis that US gun manufacturers are responsible for the violence their weapons are causing in Mexico, and that the companies are “deliberate and willing participants, reaping profits from the criminal market they knowingly supply,” reports VICE. 
  
  
• In the Washington Post, Laura Castellanos opines that Mexico’s left is uncharacteristically quiet amidst AMLO’s increasingly militarized security strategy, especially with the backdrop of the Ayotzinapa case.  
  
  
• Robbery, extortion, corruption, and links to organized crime have been found among National Guard members, reports Reforma. 

Peru

• Peru is the world’s second-largest coca producer, and its increasing coca cultivation has been fueling the growing global demand for cocaine, reports Insight Crime.
  
  
• “As countries around the world wrestle with shortages of imported fertiliser as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Peru has turned to a tried and tested alternative: bird poo,” reports The Guardian. 

Regional

• Ride hailing services are increasingly turning to motorcycles as methods of transportation, despite the vehicles not always being recognized legally as methods of public transport and going against local regulations, says Rest of World. 
  
  
• A new InSight Crime investigation, split into five chapters, explores how Colombia’s armed conflict spread into Venezuela. 

Venezuela

• The Juan Guaidó interim government will not take part in the OAS General Assembly in Peru this week following a lack of support from regional leaders, reports Efecto Cocuyo.

Arianna Kohan y Jordi Amaral / Latin America Daily Briefing
http://latinamericadailybriefing.blogspot