Internally, González’s support across time and multiple polls remains strong.

Latin America Daily Briefing

Venezuelans will vote in a watershed presidential election on Sunday. The election is neither free nor fair, Nicolás Maduro’s government has engaged in years of political repression, and drastically limited independent media and civil society. Nonetheless, it is the most significant challenge to Maduro’s hold on power in nearly a decade. It is the first time since 2015 that the most important opposition parties are participating in a national election, and polls give the opposition Plataforma Unida Democrática coalition an important advantage.

Candidates closed their campaigns yesterday. Edmundo González Urrutia, a relatively unknown retired diplomat, is the surprise unity candidate for the opposition. He has campaigned alongside poll leader María Corina Machado, who was barred from running for office.

In a video Maduro said that only he could “guarantee peace and stability,” while Gonzñalez Urrutia urged Venezuelans to not let “the message of hate… intimidate you.” (AFP)

Neither Free nor Fair

Though González and Machado have been permitted to campaign, the Maduro government has arrested over a hundred people in politically motivated cases, most associated with the PUD campaign and 72 since the beginning of the campaign on July 4, according to Foro Penal. (Human Rights Watch)

Advocacy groups estimate nearly 290 people are detained nationwide for political reasons.

In addition to political repression, the government has intensified constraints against independent media and organizations of civil society. And electoral authorities have sought to stack the deck in favor of Maduro, from a questionable ballot design to reducing ballot boxes in polling stations in order to slow down voting and complicate monitoring. (Reuters, Reuters, Reuters)

Additionally, Maduro has leveraged alliances with criminal actors, part of the regime’s “hybrid criminal governance model,” reports InSight Crime. “Maduro’s government has not hesitated to deploy its criminal allies when threatened in the past. In the lead up to the elections, state security forces and non-state armed groups (NSAGs) have cooperated to intimidate opposition candidates and suppress their supporters.”

There will be limited international observation of the election — in May Venezuelan electoral authorities rescinded an invitation to European Union observers. The Carter Center will be present and the UN will send an Electoral Technical Team. (Human Rights Watch)

However, the opposition coalition has recruited volunteers to observe 98% of polling stations, reports the Washington Post.

Brazil’s top electoral court announced it was cancelling an observation mission after critical comments about its electoral system from Maduro and, former Argentine President Alberto Fernández said he was asked to cancel his plans to observe the election after warning Maduro that he must leave power if losing the election.

Fernández essentially paraphrased a statement by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who voiced concern after Maduro warned that an electoral loss would lead to a “bloodbath.” (Bloomberg, Buenos Aires Times)

The U.S. government voiced concern yesterday about the threat of violence in the and warned Maduro of the need to hold a fair vote free of political repression or intimidation. (Reuters)

International pressure, from the United States, Brazil and Colombia has been key in ensuring the election thus far, and advocates say foreign governments’ reactions to Sunday’s outcome will be key.

Scenarios

There are several potential scenarios for the election: a) Maduro wins; b) the government steals the election; c) Maduro concedes defeat; d) no results are announced immediately. (Caracas Chronicles)

Most serious polling puts González far ahead of Maduro, by as much as 20 to 30 points. But some analysts temper this finding. Pollsters have erred in favor of the opposition in elections since 2017, notes David Smilde in Responsible Statecraft, due to factors that include outdated census information, and the extraordinary pressure exerted by the government to ensure turnout among its voters. Massive fraud will be evident because the electronic voting machines have been audited and because of the poll witness at voting centers.

“One possible scenario would be long delays in announcing the results — something that with electronic machines should be available quickly. Extended delays will suggest that the government is losing and is figuring out what to do. The government may try to disqualify results from certain centers, candidates or parties to ensure Maduro comes out on top.

Or it could concede defeat. Despite all it has to lose, this scenario is not impossible. Even if it loses the presidency, Chavismo will still control the other branches of government, and there are five long months between the election and the investiture in January 2025, during which agreements could be forged.”

Opposition unity has been a key factor in the campaign, and a Chatham House report notes that there have been benefits to participating in elections even where conditions are suboptimal.

“Over time, when the opposition participated in elections, as it did in 2015 and 2021, it reclaimed electoral power and space. In 2015, opposition parties won a majority in the national assembly elections, though the supreme electoral tribunal stole a supermajority from them. In 2021, they gained municipal and state seats in regional and local elections.”

In defense of polling, Delphos director Félix Seijas Rodríguez notes that the gap between opposition supporters and chavistas has never been greater, and could overcome government efforts to suppress turnout and “slice away” at opposition voters. The hope of the opposition is that the vote will be “too big to steal.” (Americas Quarterly)

Among the many potential outcomes, “a clearly fraudulent result would likely trigger street protests,” according to an Atlantic Center memo.

“As in previous protest waves in 2014, 2017, and 2019, this may lead to clashes with security forces, but the prospect of these mobilizations forcing a change in government is highly unlikely. All eyes will be on Machado to gauge how she would react to low turnout or electoral fraud, and what each would mean for the prospect of unrest.

The security forces will likely be reluctant to engage in massive repression on the scale seen in the 2014 and 2017 protests, given how this fueled international condemnation and the investigation of International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan.”

Most analysts concur that any possibility of a transition will require a negotiated offramp for Maduro and allies, in particular immunity from prosecution. Many have called on international actors to support such a negotiation ahead of the elections.

“In a transition scenario, the key takeaway is that a González win won’t just be handed to him, even in the best-case scenario. It comes with challenges and concessions,” argues James Bosworth.

“My base case (60% likely) is that Maduro successfully steals the election and then represses the protests afterward and navigates the international criticism that comes his way. I’m estimating that the odds of transition are 25%. The remaining 15% of scenarios are some form of post-election chaos and violence.” (Latin America Risk Report)

According to one source cited in the Financial Times: “The best-case scenario is that the government pauses the count in the event of an opposition victory, and starts negotiating.”

More Venezuela

• Reuters has a timeline of Maduro’s time in power.
  
  
• The UNHCR estimates that more than 7.7 million Venezuelans have left since 2014, the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history — the vast majority cannot vote in Sunday’s election. (Associated Press)
  
  
• Venezuela’s climate and energy policies are also at stake in Sunday’s election, writes Luisa Palacios in Americas Quarterly.

Migration

• A U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimate predicts that increased immigration to the U.S. is expected to drive higher economic growth and labor supply, grow federal revenues and shrink deficits over the next 10 years, reports Axios.
  
  
• The report focuses on people who cannot legally work in the US, a group that “is expected to “generate $1.175 trillion in increased federal revenue in the 2024-2034 period and $270 billion in mandatory outlays and net federal spending for a net decrease of $897 billion in the federal deficit,” reports The Hill.

Regional

• Legendary Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada García was arrrested at a private airport in Texas. Zambada has evaded jail and had a $15 million bounty on his head. Authorities also detained Joaquín Guzmán López, one of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s sons, reports El País.
  
  
• Initial accounts suggest it was a betrayal by the younger Guzmán, reports the New York Times. Zambada García “was unaware he was headed to the United States when he boarded a private airplane with Mr. Guzmán López, who told him they were going to look at some real estate properties, according to two American law enforcement officials who were briefed on the situation.”
  
  
• But others dispute this account and say Zambada García cut a deal with U.S. law enforcement, according to Ioan Grillo: “I have issues with both explanations. On one side, I find it hard to accept that Mayo with his vast experience and status would need to go on a plane to inspect crops and fall into U.S. hands. But on the other, a deal for Mayo could be tricky as he is at the top level so it would be hard to make him a witness on a bigger target.” (CrashOut)
  
  
• “The charges are part of a crackdown on Sinaloa cartel leaders,” reports the Guardian. “Last year, the US justice department charged more than two dozen members of the Sinaloa cartel, including the sons of notorious drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, accusing them of supplying precursor chemicals required to make fentanyl.”
  
  
• Don’t try this at home: Reuters investigators purchased the ingredients needed to make $3 million worth of fentanyl online for just $3,600.
  
  
• Nearly 600 people fled to Guatemala from their homes in southern Mexico, fleeing cartel violence. Two of Mexico’s most powerful cartels have been battling for control of smuggling routes in the area for more than a year causing multiple displacements, reports the Associated Press.

Regional Relations

• The U.S. should ensure Mexico does not turn to China by upgrading the two countries’ relationship to a “strategic partnership,” argue Ryan Berg and Connor Pfeiffer in Foreign Policy.

Critter Corner

• “An Andean condor being treated in Chile with lead in its blood, a pellet embedded in its skull and a satellite tracker from Argentina highlights the challenges of conserving this endangered bird,” reports Reuters.
  
  
  Jordana Timerman / Latin America Daily Briefing
  latinamericadailybriefing.blogspot 07 262024