Brazilians went to the polls yesterday for the first round of national, state, and local elections. In the presidential race, Lula and Bolsonaro emerged to compete in a runoff election on October 30. Lula, the former president and frontrunner in the polls, won 48.43% of the votes, while President Bolsonaro won 43.20%, performing far better than expected according to polls. Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes won 4.16% and 3.04% of the vote, respectively, both underperforming in comparison to polls (full election results available at the TSE). 

Addressing Bolsonaro’s overperformance in comparison to the polls, Nara Pavão, who teaches political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco, tells AP, “What is most likely is people changed their preferences strategically before the vote, and that really favored Bolsonaro. People who were originally voting for Simone Tebet or Ciro Gomes (the third and fourth place finishers) decided at the last minute to vote for Bolsonaro.” The center-right Tebet and center-left Gomes both announced last night that they would make endorsements for the runoff in the coming days, reports Reuters.

Conservatives dominated the congressional elections, including multiple cases of center-right candidates losing to far-right candidates. UOL breaks down the legislative elections with a visualization of the makeup of Congress following each election since 1986. Bolsonaristas also found success in state governor races, with Claudio Castro winning re-election in the first round in Rio de Janeiro and Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas making it to a runoff against Fernando Haddad (of Lula’s Workers’ Party) in São Paulo, leaving incumbent governor Rodrigo Garcia of the PSDB behind. (AP, The Guardian) 

Election day passed without major incidents of violence and unrest, although multiple isolated incidents did occur. The Brazilian Report summarizes these events, highlighting that two police officers guarding the vote were shot in São Paulo, and another was attacked with a knife in Rio Grande do Sul. There were also incidents of a man breaking a ballot box with a stick and another man attempting to keep people from casting their votes by putting glue on the voting machine. After spending the better part of the campaign criticizing the electronic voting system and preemptively warning of fraud, Bolsonaro “pointedly refused to answer questions about possible voter fraud,” notes The Guardian. 

Argentina

• A Lula presidential victory in Brazil could “stimulate a much more active and amicable Argentine-Brazilian relationship than currently exists” and potentially induce a more assertive foreign policy strategy by the Fernández administration, according to BA Times. 
  
  
• At a dinner with the Argentine Armed Forces, Alberto Fernández once again claimed sovereignty over the Falkland (Malvinas) Islands, claiming the territory is “illegitimately occupied by one of the world’s leading military powers,” reports MercoPress. Fernández also announced the construction of an integrated naval base in the southern province of Ushuaia, as part of the country’s strategy towards Antarctica. 
  
  
• The Nestor Kirchner pipeline in Argentina’s Neuquen province needs financing for the second phase of its construction, with government officials currently in talks with banks and gas production companies for potential funding, says Reuters. The pipeline’s first phase of construction is set to begin later this year.  

Caribbean

• The Caribbean Islands of French Guiana, Guadeloupe, and Martinique have become popular departure points for smuggling cocaine to Europe, particularly France, says Insight Crime. 

Central America

• Guatemala’s first metaverse, called Platzees, was removed from OpeanSea, the internet’s largest NFT marketplace, says Rest of World. It is unclear why the digital collection was removed from the platform. 

Chile

• A congressional debate on the fifth withdrawal of pension funds this year offered the Rechazo camp a strong offensive over just a four day period ahead of Chile’s constitutional plebiscite, says NACLA. The bill, supported by President Boric and the Apruebo camp, could be a potential reason for Rechazo’s victory in the referendum. 
  
• Centro de Políticas Públicas UC offers analysis on how to best integrate migrants coming to Chile into the country’s labor force. 

Colombia

• Katherin Galindo writes in Observatorio de Inversión Privada that “Building peace in Colombia requires a tripartite relationship between communities, local and national authorities, and the private sector, in a way that boosts development in the areas most affected by conflict.” 
  
  
• Gustavo Petro’s promise to “spend tens of billions of dollars to ensure small-scale farmers and indigenous groups have access to more land, as part of a plan to correct generations of deep inequality” have caused an increase in land occupations by impoverished farmers, reports Reuters. These occupations threaten investment and hurt businesses, as they affect production and cause uncertainty related to security and output. 

Ecuador

• According to Proyecto Migración Venezuela, the second phase of a process to regularize the immigration status of Venezuelan migrants in Ecuador began on Saturday.  

El Salvador

• The self-identifying group Guacamaya, in a major hack of the region’s defense forces, obtained documents from El Salvador’s military and National Police, according to ABC. Other affected countries include Mexico (see below) and Chile, among others.  

Guatemala 

• “While technically freedom of the press is protected, it is not enforced and those responsible for attacks against journalists often have connections with those in charge of bringing justice. As a result, Guatemala has created an environment where journalists are forced to self-censor in fear of retaliation,” writes Yadira Sánchez-Esparza at Latin America Working Group 

Mexico

• The phones of at least three journalists and human rights defenders were infected with a software that allowed for the monitoring of calls and messages. These infections occurred during the same time period that Mexico’s ministry of defense, Sedena, bought the Pegasus spy software from NSO Group, says Animal Político. 
  
  
• A data hack from a group called Guacamaya publicized various high-level documents from the Mexican ministry of defense, with some documents revealing that AMLO was brought to the hospital for a “serious” cardiological condition in early January and was also diagnosed with hypothyroidism, reports 24 Horas. The massive hack also revealed details of the “Culiacanazo” and differences between the marine secretary and the defense secretary, says El Universal. 

Paraguay

• “A fire broke out at the headquarters of Paraguay’s national electoral agency on Thursday, killing one person and raising questions about prospects for presidential primaries and general elections scheduled for coming months,” reports Reuters.

Peru

• According to La República, Rafael López Aliaga is set to win Lima’s mayoral race after Peru’s elections yesterday. He leads Daniel Urresti by just over 23,000 votes (about half of a percentage point). Reuters describes López Aliaga as “an Opus Dei businessman,” why Urresti is “a retired military officer accused of murdering a journalist.” 

Venezuela

• “In a rare softening of hostile relations, Venezuela freed on Saturday seven imprisoned Americans in exchange for the United States releasing two nephews of President Nicolás Maduro’s wife who had been jailed for years on narcotics convictions. The swap of the Americans, including five oil executives held for nearly five years, follows months of back channel diplomacy by senior U.S. officials,” reports AP. 
  
  
• State-run oil company PDVSA seized a 40% stake “in a key joint oil venture from GPB Global Resources, a private energy firm” run by former Gazprom and Russian government officials, reports Bloomberg.

Arianna Kohan y Jordi Amaral / Latin America Daily Briefing
http://latinamericadailybriefing.blogspot