How an Isolated Maduro Still Clings to Power in Venezuela

Bloomberg News

CARACAS
EnergiesNet.com 01 15 2025

After claiming victory in Venezuela’s July presidential election despite evidence to the contrary, the country’s long-time ruler Nicolás Maduro has been sworn in for a third six-year term, prompting further outcry, widespread global condemnation and fresh sanctions.

Pressure is mounting on an increasingly isolated Maduro, who has ramped up repression of his opponents and even closed airways and land crossings with Venezuela’s former ally Colombia to prevent his election opponent, who fled the country, from returning and disrupting his inauguration.

Here’s what you need to know about the current situation in Venezuela

What’s happened to Venezuela under Maduro

Maduro, 62, came to power in Venezuela in March 2013 upon the death of his mentor, Hugo Chávez, the army colonel who was first elected president in 1998 and led a socialist revolution. Shortages of food and fuel and unreliable public services have marked Maduro’s rule, leading 7.7 million Venezuelans to leave the country and sparking waves of popular protests. The government has responded by enacting laws that allow armed forces to control public demonstrations, criminalizing political gatherings, limiting media freedom and curtailing activities by non-governmental organizations. Those accused of breaking these laws can find themselves in military courts, where they could face penalties on par with those for murder. 

How has Maduro managed to stay in power? 

Maduro has leaned on his alliance with the military’s top leaders, who have helped keep him in power. They have stood by his side and put down nationwide protests in 2014 and 2017. Maduro has rewarded them with the lucrative control of ports, oil concessions and mining projects. His cabinet is packed with decorated officers, ministry positions have gone to security force members, and state businesses have found room to take on members of the military leadership.

The security forces are heavily indoctrinated, closely surveilled and deliberately structured to safeguard against potential challenges to Maduro arising from within their ranks. Maduro has quashed sporadic plots by military dissidents, including an alleged assassination attempt against him in 2018. 

Still, there are risks for Maduro, given that lower-ranking troops are poorly compensated and live in difficult conditions due to the country’s low salaries while many top officers live in comfort. To lessen the chances of rebellion, the government has clamped down on dissent within the military barracks. Before July’s vote, half of a total of 287 political prisoners were from the military, accused of treason and jailed in military facilities, according to the Caracas-based legal nonprofit Foro Penal.

What happened in Venezuela’s most recent election? 

As Venezuela emerged from its deepest economic slump in modern history, Maduro seemed willing to take a chance on a new, open presidential election. 

María Corina Machado, the main opposition figure, was banned from the ballot. But against the odds, a credible stand-in for her, Edmundo González, was allowed to run as Maduro sought to convince the international community that he was respecting democratic principles. 

Instead, those principles were flouted openly. Maduro declared without proof that he’d won a third six-year term in the July 28 election. The opposition responded by releasing detailed results from a majority of polling stations indicating González took nearly 70% of the vote, almost as twice as Maduro’s share. Tallies published by Machado’s team were recognized as valid by many countries and institutions, including the US, the European Union and the Carter Center, the nonprofit established by former US President Jimmy Carter that is dedicated, in part, to supporting democratic elections. 

Who are Machado and González, the two opposition figures?

A former lawmaker, Machado, 57, comes from a wealthy family. Her father’s steel-making company, Sivensa, was the country’s second largest when Chávez seized it in 2010. The experience helped shape her view that the state should not interfere in the economy. 

Machado, who ran electoral watchdog Súmate for over a decade, is often remembered for interrupting one of Chávez’s speeches to criticize the damage he’d inflicted on the Venezuelan economy and later leading street protests against Maduro. This led Diosdado Cabello, a Maduro ally who was then the speaker of the National Assembly, to expel her from the chamber in 2014.

After that, she mostly stayed out of the limelight until announcing her presidential candidacy. Following her victory in the 2023 opposition primaries with 92.4% of the vote, the country’s top court reinstated a decision that banned her from running for office until 2030. According to the government comptroller, Machado had made errors and omissions in her asset disclosures. The government also said she was linked to several “corruption plots” headed by former interim President Juan Guaidó. And it accused her of complicity in US sanctions against Venezuela

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Venezuela Opposition Calls Protests As US Backs Transition© Photographer: Bloomberg

Despite her disqualification, Machado kept campaigning across the nation. In spontaneous rallies that stretched into the night, she appealed to Venezuelans with promises of eliminating government controls on the economy and reinstituting private property and companies. She succeeded in uniting a divided opposition around a shared goal of ousting Maduro.

González, 75, served as Venezuela’s ambassador to Argentina and Algeria in the 90s and early 2000s. He advocates for stabilizing Venezuela’s currency, fostering foreign investment and freeing political prisoners. 

What’s happened since the election?

Maduro’s claim to have won the election sparked mass protests. Government forces cracked down hard, making mass arrests and employing what a United Nations’ fact-finding mission called “the harshest and most violent mechanisms.” 

The US State Department said there are credible reports of Maduro’s government using arbitrary killings, forced disappearances and torture to suppress citizens, according to its latest human rights report. 

González fled to Spain, which granted him asylum, while Machado went into hiding. 

Machado, who resurfaced on Jan. 9 at an anti-Maduro rally, was briefly detained and released within two hours. Meanwhile, González said he would return to Venezuela to be sworn in as president. Venezuelan authorities responded by offering a $100,000 reward for information leading to his capture. 

How has the world reacted?

The US under President Joe Biden recognized González as Venezuela’s president-elect. Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as the new US president Jan. 20, used the same term for him on his Truth Social platform. To increase the pressure on Maduro’s government, the US, EU, UK and Canada have increased sanctions against Venezuelan officials.

Some Latin American countries, including Argentina and Perú, have recognized González as the legitimate president. Maduro has even lost support from idealogical allies Colombia and Brazil, whose leaders demanded that the Venezuelan government release proof of his election win and declined to attend his inauguration. 

Still, some allies remain. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel was in attendance for Maduro’s inauguration, as was a representative of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Nicaraguan leader Daniel Ortega and a special envoy of Russian President Vladimir Putin also attended the proceedings.

bloomberg.com 01 14 2025