The Mexican government’s investigation into the 2014 murder of 43 students — the results were announced with fanfare and a slew of arrest warrants in August — is built on uncorroborated evidence and is rapidly unraveling, reports the New York Times.

The López Obrador administration’s rush to deliver answers in one of the country’s most emblematic human rights cases “resulted in a series of missteps: a truth commission that relied on unsubstantiated evidence and a criminal investigation that botched the prosecution of key suspects,” according to NYT.

The head of the Special Investigation and Litigation Unit for the Ayotzinapa Case, Omar Gómez Trejo, resigned a month ago, condemning undue interference in the investigation after it was made public that the Mexican attorney general’s office withdrew 21 arrest warrants requested, 16 of which were against military personnel accused of having participated in the kidnapping and murder of the students.

The resignation came as the Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts (GIEI) published further evidence of military and civilian authorities’ collusion with organized criminal actors at the time of the students’ enforced disappearance, explained WOLA in September.

The setbacks put the progress achieved in the case “at risk and threatens to further delay the families’ access to truth, justice, and remembrance,” denounced Amnesty International last month.

Brazil votes

Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday for a runoff election between former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. (See yesterday’s post.)

The election — featuring accusations of cannibalism, pedophilia and culture war tropes — has been the “most toxic” in “modern history,” according to the Washington Post.

Indeed, Brazil’s polarization is such that many voters are “simply voting against the candidate they despise,” according to the Associated Press.

Bolsonaro’s consistent questioning of Brazil’s electoral system has many supporters firmly convinced that he will either win his reelection bid on Sunday, or that the vote is rigged, reports the New York Times.

Fears that Bolsonaro would not accept a loss on Sunday have grown after his son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, claimed the president was the victim of “the greatest electoral fraud ever seen,” reports the Guardian. (See yesterday’s post.) Bolsonaro allies claim that local radio stations in north-east Brazil had broadcast thousands more campaign adverts for the Lula campaign — and that the alleged irregularity is an attempt to manipulate the election and could merit postponing the vote.

More Brazil

• Most Brazil post-election analyses have focused on the likelihood of a Lula win — but a Bolsonaro victory is not impossible. A second term would resemble the first, albeit with the president’s “ideological wing” strengthened, and more weakness among his government’s technocrats. The government would likely place greater emphasis on social conservatism and culture wars, writes Oliver Stuenkel in Americas Quarterly.

Haiti

• Canadian officials announced that they were conducting an assessment mission in Haiti, to consult with Haitians and others in the international community on how Canada can help restore access to essential goods and services amid escalating gang violence and a deepening humanitarian crisis, reports the Miami Herald. The announcement came as the U.S. seeks to convince an international partner to head a rapid action force on the ground in Haiti. (See yesterday’s briefs and Wednesday’s post.)

Regional Relations

• China’s engagement with Latin America has been tapering for years — economic slowdown at home and investor uncertainty over the region’s political and economic processes mean that trend is likely to continue, argues Margaret Myers in the Wilson Center’s Weekly Asado.
  
  
• However, “the region should also expect continued expansive Chinese diplomatic outreach,” following Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s ascension to the Politburo, she adds.

Regional

• As Chinese companies like Didi, Kuaishou, Huawei, and TikTok expand across Latin America, they are hiring young, local tech professionals and accelerating their corporate careers, reports Rest of World.
  
  
• Pessimistic predictions of economic growth in Latin America will be critical to every political story in Latin America next year, writes James Bosworth in World Politics Review.

El Salvador

• Official documents obtained by El Faro through Guacamaya Leaks show not only that senior MS-13 leader Élmer Canales Rivera, “Crook,” was freed from prison in November 2021, but that his exit was registered in emails, police profiles, and other reports from the National Civil Police of El Salvador. The historic gang leader “left maximum-security prison despite multiple ongoing sentences adding up to more than four decades in prison, pending criminal accusations against him, and an international extradition order,” reports El Faro.

Peru

• Four oil spills in Peru’s Amazon in recent weeks have affected more than 30 Indigenous communities, with a joint population of about 6,000, reports El País. Activists say most spills in the region are due to aging oil infrastructure, while government officials pin the blame on sabotage.

Paraguay

• Paraguay’s opposition parties are running for next year’s presidential elections with a strong anti-corruption narrative targeting the incumbent Colorado Party. “But candidates so far have not articulated credible policies to weed out what is a deeply systemic problem,” writes Esteban Caballero at the AULA blog.

Regional

• Spanish consulates in Latin America say they have been inundated with inquiries since Spain passed a law granting citizenship to the grandchildren of people exiled under the Franco dictatorship, reports the Guardian.

Jordana Timerman / Latin America Daily Briefing
http://latinamericadailybriefing.blogspot