WTI, Brent prices settle at lowest in over a week

Mayra P. Saefond and William Watts, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK
EnergiesNet.com 07 08 2024

Oil futures settled at their lowest level in over a week on Monday as the storm in the Gulf of Mexico known as Beryl weakened, posing less of a threat to energy infrastructure in the region, and as apparent progress toward an Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal eased supply worries.

Price moves

• West Texas Intermediate crude CL00, -0.44% for August delivery CL.1, -0.44% CLQ24, -0.44% fell 83 cents, or 1%, to settle at $82.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange — the lowest front-month contract finish since June 28, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
  
  
• September Brent crude BRN00, -0.36% BRNU24, -0.36%, the global benchmark, lost 79 cents, or 0.9%, to $85.75 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe — the lowest finish since June 26.
  
  
• August gasoline RBQ24, -0.17% fell by 0.8% to $2.54 a gallon.
  
  
• August heating oil HOQ24, -0.77% lost 0.9% to $2.58 a gallon.
  
  
• Natural gas for August delivery NGQ24, -0.38% settled at $2.37 per million British thermal units, up 2%.

Market drivers

Oil felt some “bearish pressure” from talks of a potential Gaza ceasefire deal being mediated by Qatar and Egypt, the Kansas City energy team at StoneX, led by Alex Hodes, wrote in Monday’s newsletter, while noting that “these discussions have fallen apart many times so far.”

The level of devastation in the Gaza Strip from Israel’s nine-month offensive has likely pushed Hamas to soften its demands for a cease-fire agreement, the Associated Press reported Monday. Hamas dropped its longstanding demand that Israel promise to end the war as part of any cease-fire deal.

On Friday, prices for Brent and WTI crude finished the trading session lower, but logged weekly gains for a fourth week in a row.

Oil bulls had “been emboldened by the threat of Hurricane Beryl amplifying U.S. supply risks,” Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity, told MarketWatch.

Beryl — which earlier this month became the earliest Category 5 storm in Atlantic history — made landfall on the Texas coast as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm was then downgraded to a tropical storm Monday afternoon.

Ports in Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City had closed Sunday in anticipation, news reports said. The port closures could delay exports of crude and the movement of motor fuels in the region.

The potential for a drop in energy demand in the wake of the storm’s damage has also been a concern.

For now, oil bulls are taking a breather, Tan said, but prices “may yet move higher as long as the seasonal rise in U.S. summertime demand can stay true to expectations.”

Meanwhile, WTI appeared to suffer from profit-taking on Friday after failing to push above resistance at the $85-a-barrel level, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

Minor support for WTI is seen at $81.85 a barrel, she said in a note, which marks a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of crude’s rebound last month.

Many technical analysts pay attention to what’s known as the Fibonacci ratio, attributed to the 13th-century Italian mathematician of the same name. Analysts see key retracement targets for a rally from a significant low to a significant peak at 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%, while retracements of 23.6% and 76.4% are seen as secondary targets.

Ozkardeskaya said major support for WTI is seen near the psychologically important level of $80 a barrel, which also coincides with the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement “and which should distinguish between the actual positive trend and a medium-term bearish reversal.”

Fundamentally, the global demand outlook for oil would have to sharply improve, with China in particular focus, “in order to restore and sustain oil prices back above $90,” said Exinity’s Tan. “Such expectations are set to be buffered once major central banks can lean harder into their respective policy pivots and shore up global demand.”

Until then, oil benchmarks are “likely to see limited upside, barring the occasional spike on geopolitical or supply-side risks, with markets aware that OPEC+ could unwind some of its output cuts later this year,” he said.

energiesNet.com 07 08 2024