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Latin America Risk Report: Mexico-The PRI may lose Edomex (May 30, 2023)

According to El Financiero, Morena candidate Delfina Gómez has a 14 point advantage in the gubernatorial election scheduled for this upcoming Sunday. PRI candidate Alejandra del Moral has a 47% disapproval rating, making it quite hard to win in a two-way race. The loss of Estado de Mexico would be a huge blow to the PRI and would harm the party’s ability to use state government resources to mobilize for next year’s presidential elections.

Peru – More people disapprove of the handling of the protests

The monthly IEP poll shows that Peruvian views of the abuses that occurred during the protest wave in December and January have worsened after the protests quieted down.

That is an interesting contrast to Chile. During the 2019 protests, polling showed Chileans strongly disapproved of police abuses of protesters. But after the protests died down, the polling shifted towards a more favorable view of the police. In Peru, the opposite appears to be true, with more people critical of the security forces in the months after the protests died down.

If Peruvians are disapproving of their security forces in larger numbers and the reporting of the abuses has made them more critical, it will make government efforts to control future protests more difficult.

Chile – Constitutional disapproval up; presidential approval always down

Just a few weeks after electing a new constitutional assembly, Cadem reports that 46% of Chileans say they plan to reject a new constitution in December while 34% say they will vote in favor. 20% say they are undecided, which seems reasonable being that the new constitutional draft isn’t written yet.

Boric’s approval rating is at 31%, which really hasn’t changed much in recent months. For some context, below is a graph from Cadem that captures the long view. Chilean presidents collectively have spent about nine of the last ten years in net negative approval.

By Boz and Lucy Hale

MAY 30, 2023

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