04 /11 Closing Prices / revised 04/12 2024 09:11 GMT 04/11   OPEC Basket    $90.62 +0.24  | 04/11   Mexico Basket (MME)   $78.62   +0.07  | 02/12    Venezuela Basket (Merey)  $67.27  +0.77  | 04/11    NYMEX WTI Texas Intermediate May CLK24   $85.02  -1.19 | 04/11    ICE Brent June  BRNM24      $89.74  -0.74    | 04/11     NYMEX Gasoline May RBK24   $2.66   – 1.8%   |  04/11   NYMEX  Heating Oil May  HOK24   $2.71  -1.1 %   | 04/11    Natural Gas May NGK24    $1.76  -4.4% | 04/05    Active U.S. Rig Count (Oil & Gas)    620   -1  | 04/12    USD/MXN Mexican Peso  16.4775  (data live) | 04/12    EUR/USD    1.0674  (data live)  | 04/12      US/Bs. (Bolivar)   $36.28040000 ( data BCV)  

OPEC+ cuts to tighten oil market sharply in fourth quarter, IEA says – Reuters

People sunbathe as oil and gas tankers are anchored off the Fos-Lavera oil hub near Marseille, southeastern France, October 7, 2010. (Jean-Paul Pelissier/Reuters)

Natalie Grover and Alex Lawler, Reuters

EnergiesNet.com 09 14 2023 v

Oil output cuts which Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended to the end of 2023 will mean a substantial market deficit through the fourth quarter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, as it largely stuck by its estimates for demand growth this year and next.

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, began limiting supplies in 2022 to bolster the market. This month, benchmark Brent crude breached $90 a barrel for the first time this year after OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their combined 1.3 million barrel per day (bpd) cuts until the end of 2023.

Output curbs by OPEC+ members of more than 2.5 million bpd since the start of 2023 have so far been offset by higher supplies from producers outside the alliance, including the United States, Brazil and still under-sanctions Iran, the agency said.

“But from September onwards, the loss of OPEC+ production… will drive a significant supply shortfall through the fourth quarter,” it said in its monthly oil report.

However, the lack of cuts at the start of next year would shift the balance to a surplus, the agency said, highlighting that stocks will be at uncomfortably low levels, increasing the risk of another surge in volatility in a fragile economic environment.


Broader economic concerns, led by China’s sluggish post-pandemic recovery, have been amplified by worries that interest rates will remain high in the United States.

Still, oil demand at the world’s biggest oil importer has so “far remained remarkably unaffected by its economic downturn”, the IEA said.

“China is the main wild card,” it added. “Any abrupt weakening of China’s industrial activity and oil demand is likely to spill over globally, making for a more challenging climate for emerging markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America.”

Estimates of global demand and supply this year and next differ markedly depending on the forecaster.

Both the IEA and OPEC – in its monthly report published on Tuesday – are optimistic about Chinese demand over the course of 2023, leaving their global demand estimates for this year and next largely unchanged.

The IEA estimates 2023 global demand to grow by 2.2 million bpd, while OPEC expects growth of 2.44 million bpd.

For 2024, the contrast is wide. The IEA expects growth to slow sharply to 1 million bpd, while OPEC has a far rosier estimate of 2.25 million bpd.

Meanwhile, the U.S government’s Energy Information Administration has forecast demand growth at 1.81 million bpd for 2023 and 1.36 million bpd next year.

“Welcome to the chaotic world of forecasting,” Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said.

Reporting by Natalie Grover and Alex Lawler in London; editing by Louise Heavens and Jason Neely

reuters.com 09 13 2023

Share this news

Support EnergiesNet.com

By Elio Ohep · Launched in 1999 under Petroleumworld.com

Information & News on Latin America’s Energy, Oil, Gas, Renewables, Climate, Technology, Politics and Social issues

Contact : editor@petroleuworld.com

CopyRight©1999-2021, EnergiesNet.com™  / Elio Ohep – All rights reserved

This site is a public free site and it contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner.We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of business, environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have chosen to view the included information for research, information, and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission fromPetroleumworld or the copyright owner of the material.

Scroll to Top